2020 Elections

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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You can print this out to use as a Bingo card on election night, week or month:
Here are the Senate races to watch, as Democrats battle to take control from Republicans
Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take control of the Senate — or just 3 seats if Joe Biden wins the presidential race


Image
Republicans are the incumbents in 13 out of the 15 competitive races.

FiveThirtyEight forecast / Cook’s ratings

1. Arizona 78% chance for D win / Lean D
2. Colorado 76% chance for D win / Lean D
3. Maine 62% chance for D win / Toss up
4. Alabama 76% chance for R win / Lean R
5. North Carolina 65% chance for D win :thumbup: / Toss up
6. Iowa 51% chance for D win / Toss up
7. Montana 70% chance for R win / Toss up
8. Georgia (1) 74% chance for R win / Toss up
9. Georgia (2) 75% chance for R win / Lean R
10. South Carolina 76% chance for R win :( / Toss up
11. Kansas 75% chance for R win / Lean R
12. Alaska 80% chance for R win / Likely R
13. Michigan 81% chance for D win / Lean D
14. Texas 88% chance for R win / Likely R
15. Kentucky 96% chance for R win / Likely R
538:
1 R pick-up
4 D pick-ups + 51% chance that Iowa will be a D pick-up
:clap:

Cook:
1 R pick-up
2 D pick-ups
6 toss ups
:problem:
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
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GoCubsGo
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Does "vapors" Lindsey have Covid or just scared to debate?

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Re: 2020 Elections

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Kinda think ole Wolfman is on to something here.

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:47 pm
Does "vapors" Lindsey have Covid or just scared to debate?
They're sort of doing it now. First Jaime Harrison then Lindsey Graham, same panel, local CBS.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
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Ulysses
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Re: 2020 Elections

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According to today's Electoral-vote.com, the Dems stand to pick up six US Senate seats:

Dem pickups AZ CO GA IA ME NC

I'd say that's pretty damn good!

Might turn into seven pickups if Lindsey face plants again.
Buh-Bye, President Plump...

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O Really
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Re: 2020 Elections

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We can reasonably hope, but that projection is a bit aggressive compared to RCP and 538, for example. But if they're on point, it would be fabulous, eh?

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Re: 2020 Elections

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Don't forget probably losing Alabama.
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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:04 am
Don't forget probably losing Alabama.
The current Senate is 53 Repug, 45 Dem, and 2 Ind that caucus with the Dems.
Electoral-vote.com actually predicts 47 Repug, 52 (de facto) Dem and 1 tie (AK).
https://www.electoral-vote.com/senate/
That's the 6 Dems pick ups Ulysses lists, minus the currently Dem AL seat that you mention.
However, according to Electoral-vote.com the GA and ME Dems are only leading by 1%, and Iowa and NC are "Barely Dem".
Some folks are now calling NC a toss up thanks to Dem Cunningham's affair. The Moscow Mitch PAC ads are saying that he was screwing "another veteran's wife." :roll:

So, the 3 sites are largely in agreement except that Cook is more cautious about citing leaners.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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GoCubsGo
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:06 pm
GoCubsGo wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:47 pm
Does "vapors" Lindsey have Covid or just scared to debate?
They're sort of doing it now. First Jaime Harrison then Lindsey Graham, same panel, local CBS.
Ah.

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Re: 2020 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 6:16 am
GoCubsGo wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:04 am
Don't forget probably losing Alabama.
The current Senate is 53 Repug, 45 Dem, and 2 Ind that caucus with the Dems.
Electoral-vote.com actually predicts 47 Repug, 52 (de facto) Dem and 1 tie (AK).
https://www.electoral-vote.com/senate/
That's the 6 Dems pick ups Ulysses lists, minus the currently Dem AL seat that you mention.
However, according to Electoral-vote.com the GA and ME Dems are only leading by 1%, and Iowa and NC are "Barely Dem".
Some folks are now calling NC a toss up thanks to Dem Cunningham's affair. The Moscow Mitch PAC ads are saying that he was screwing "another veteran's wife." :roll:

So, the 3 sites are largely in agreement except that Cook is more cautious about citing leaners.
👍
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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:56 am
Vrede too wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:06 pm
GoCubsGo wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:47 pm
Does "vapors" Lindsey have Covid or just scared to debate?
They're sort of doing it now. First Jaime Harrison then Lindsey Graham, same panel, local CBS.
Ah.
Lindsey doesn't need an on-stage opponent in order to reveal that he's an asshole.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sen-graham-b ... 09033.html

“I care about everybody. If you’re a young African-American, an immigrant, you can go anywhere in this state. You just need to be conservative, not liberal." :wtf:

20,000 Blacks and Latinos that weren't going to bother are now going to vote for Harrison.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Republicans are finally ready to diss Don

Too late, rats. You'll be pulled down by the ship's suction.

Sen. Ted Cruz: could be a “bloodbath of Watergate proportions” for his party

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: doesn’t have confidence that Trump and his team are practicing good coronavirus hygiene.

Sen. Martha McSally refusing to say — despite being pressed repeatedly by the moderator — whether she is proud of being a backer of Trump.

Sen. John Cornyn: Trump did not practice “self-discipline” in combating the coronavirus, and that his efforts to signal prematurely that the pandemic is receding are creating “confusion” with the public. Trump got “out over his skis,” Cornyn said.

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker: Trump has been “incredibly irresponsible”

After Trump abruptly called off talks on a new economic recovery plan this week, a number of Republicans publicly broke with Trump’s strategy.
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine . . . Collins has refused to say whether she will even vote for Trump.
Rep. John Katko of New York
Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee communications director, likened the moves of prominent GOP figures this week to “animals before an earthquake” trying to reposition themselves before what could be “a disastrous election for the Republicans.”

Best of all to me is Sen. Thom Tillis (North Carolina) predicting "a Biden presidency.”

Different article:

:lol: Dole thinks he's championing "fairness", but he really just exposed GOP hatred for PINO.

:thumbup:
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
1312.

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:23 pm
Overt voter suppression by a democratically elected official. Attempting to take away the most basic democratic civil right.

One of these days, someone is going to say no mas and in a state like Texas it won't end well.
Someone said, "No mas."

Judge blocks order limiting Texas ballot drop-off locations

Worst possible outcome for Repug Gov Abbott - stymie voting and then get stopped from doing so.

:---P
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Nice.

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:15 pm
Nice.
Also nice:
The Biden campaign is reaching out to Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders with targeted ad campaign



Joe Biden’s presidential campaign announced on Friday a paid media campaign targeting Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities that will include ads airing nationally and in 16 key states. The push, first reported by Yahoo News, is one of the first major political advertising campaigns specifically aimed at reaching Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders....
Excellent:
Strapped for cash, Trump yanks TV ads in key states as Biden spending surges

President Trump stopped all of his television and radio advertising in three states and substantially reduced it in four others in recent weeks after his lackluster fundraising left him unable to match a surge in spending by his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

Trump's retreat from Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire reflects his struggle to change the dynamics of a race that polls suggest he is on track to lose. In the six weeks since his party's national convention, Trump's campaign has yanked more than $17 million in ads he'd previously booked in those states.

Two of them, Ohio and Iowa, are must-wins for the Republican president. Polls show him running almost dead even with the former vice president in both. Trump's withdrawal of advertising in those states — despite the risk — is a sign of his campaign's poor financial condition.

"It seems the Trump campaign has reached the point where they have to do some triage," said Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks political ads. "They don't seem to have enough money to run ads everywhere."

By contrast, Biden has been sharply increasing his ad spending across the entire election map and has begun pouring money into states that once looked out of reach. Among them are Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa. In the week that will end Monday, Biden's $36 million in TV and radio spots overall is double Trump's $18 million, according to Advertising Analytics, an ad tracking firm.

The reason for the disparity is clear: Trump has far less money than Biden. At the end of August, Biden reported $466 million in the bank, and Trump $325 million, according to filings at the Federal Election Commission and tallies shared by the campaigns....

Since the end of August, Trump has also cut $11 million in ad time that he'd previously reserved in Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to Advertising Analytics.

Part of what Trump is doing is shifting resources into states he sees as essential to get the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term in the Nov. 3 election: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. Trump added $18 million to the ad spending he'd already reserved for the last six weeks in those states.

Trump's financial strain is also showing in Pennsylvania, another state he can't afford to lose. After pulling about $2 million in ads he'd planned to run there in September, he has ramped up spending in Pennsylvania in the last couple of weeks.

In its hunt for quick cash, the Trump campaign has been making urgent appeals. In the 24 hours ending Friday morning, one potential donor received 13 emails and five text messages with pleas for money from Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and others. Subject lines included "Basement Biden," "Totally and Completely Corrupt," and "Kamala Was a Mess," alluding to Pence's debate Wednesday with California Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden's running mate.

In the campaign's final weeks, Trump could shift priorities and spend heavily in states where he has pulled back. But more than 9 million Americans have already cast their ballots and more people vote each day, so the target audience is steadily shrinking....

Trump's woes are clear in the latest polls. Biden has widened his lead nationwide to 10 percentage points, according to a FiveThirtyEight aggregate of public surveys.

More threatening to Trump is the daunting electoral college map: Polls show Biden ahead in every state that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 and in nine of those that went for Trump.

Voters prefer Biden by more than 5 percentage points in the three states Trump won by tiny margins: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Biden holds narrower leads in six other states that Trump carried: Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia....
I'm disgusted by the dollar amounts, but until we get sane rules I'm happy that PINO has less of it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0DMpKeH8bQ
:---P


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6T5BrmBVV5Q

Whoa.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
1312.

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neoplacebo
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Re: 2020 Elections

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The Biden spot with Cindy McCain is running here in TN. So far, I'm seeing about the same number of spots for trump here as Biden.

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Re: 2020 Elections

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neoplacebo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:59 am
The Biden spot with Cindy McCain is running here in TN. So far, I'm seeing about the same number of spots for trump here as Biden.
Surprised, didn't think Tenn is in play.
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Re: 2020 Elections

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GoCubsGo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:50 am
neoplacebo wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:59 am
The Biden spot with Cindy McCain is running here in TN. So far, I'm seeing about the same number of spots for trump here as Biden.
Surprised, didn't think Tenn is in play.
Neo's station likely has a market overlap in WNC.

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