2020 Elections

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Vrede too »

Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:18 am
I'm registered here in SC, been a resident for 15 years (has it really been that long already?). I've got my application printed and filled out. Gonna go turn it in in person tomorrow and get my absentee ballot!
If you're going there in person, anyhow, and not using snail mail, which has always worked fine for me, why not just early vote?
https://www.greenvillecounty.org/VoterR ... demPPP.pdf
In-person Voting Hours for the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary
Beginning January 30, 2020 – Through February 28, 2020
Monday – Friday 8:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Extended Hours: Saturday, February 22nd 9:00a.m. - 1:00p.m., Thursday, February 27th 8:30a.m. - 7:00 p.m.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Vrede too »

Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:00 am
No way will I support Bloomberg or any billionaire in the primaries, but I'm not freaked out by the prospect. The way I see it:

Pluses

The money to win;
Superior business success to 45SHOLE;
The best credentials for what is mostly a managerial job;
Decent platform, including years of gun control advocacy;
A generally successful mayoral career.

Minuses

A fourth ancient (78) White, would be 86! at the end of a 2nd term;
Buying the presidency = reduced accountability;
Uncertain whether he can unite Dems. Minorities and progressives may stay home;
Some well intentioned PR flubs like Big Gulpgate;
Another NYC POTUS? With Hillary that would be 3/3 nominees in 2 elections.

What would y'all add to these lists, and might any of you vote for him in your primary?
O Really wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:44 am
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:00 am
...
Uncertain whether he can unite Dems. Minorities and progressives may stay home;
...
That's possible, of course, but anybody stupid enough to do that probably shouldn't have a vote anyway, and deserves another 4 years of Trump.
That's an understandable moral stance, but maybe not a winning electoral strategy, for you as well as them.
I like Bloomberg. He's close to the good side on most issues, has a competent work history including his NYC mayorship, and since he's been in the public eye for a long time with no significant skeletons, I'd say he carries little baggage. Some may resent his wealth or his slight NYC speech pattern, but there's not much to generate a Hillary-hate.
No argument here, good additions to the "Pluses" list.
As to "buying the election"

"The candidate who spends the most money usually wins
How strong is the association between campaign spending and political success? For House seats, more than 90 percent of candidates who spend the most win. From 2000 through 2016, there was only one election cycle where that wasn’t true: 2010. “In that election, 86 percent of the top spenders won,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group that tracks campaign fundraising and spending."

It's not entirely that simple, but still true. Interesting analysis here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... ove-story/
My point was about the "reduced accountability" of self-financing, not a denial of the extreme and undemocratic importance of money.

Does this mean that you're thinking of voting for him?
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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O Really
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by O Really »

Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:56 am

That's an understandable moral stance, but maybe not a winning electoral strategy, for you as well as them.
...
My point was about the "reduced accountability" of self-financing, not a denial of the extreme and undemocratic importance of money.
...
Does this mean that you're thinking of voting for him?
I don't think any stance that would aid or lead to another Trump term could be considered "moral." Jump the Godwin Rule shark and for sake of analagy substitute "Hitler" for "Trump". Could helping to keep Hitler in power be considered moral?

Well, you can't have it both ways on the financing - a candidate who accepts donations incurs some obligation to those who donate - the candidate who self-finances "has no accountability." The candidate who cannot self-fund nor accepts contributions loses.

Sure, I'd vote for Bloomberg. Probably first choice at this point. When you look at RealClearPolitics, in every battleground state, Biden beats Trump in every poll. But assuming Biden's biting the big one and is effectively out. RCP polls show that in almost all polls, Bernie will beat Trump; and in some, maybe half, Warren win. Pete doesn't. Maybe one or two polls in a couple of states. Klobuchar didn't have enough support to be included in the polls, apparently. So if Biden has tanked, and Warren is headed the same way, we're left with Bernie, Pete, and Amy.
My heart can't stand the excitement. :roll:

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Whack9
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Whack9 »

Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:48 am
Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:18 am
I'm registered here in SC, been a resident for 15 years (has it really been that long already?). I've got my application printed and filled out. Gonna go turn it in in person tomorrow and get my absentee ballot!
If you're going there in person, anyhow, and not using snail mail, which has always worked fine for me, why not just early vote?
https://www.greenvillecounty.org/VoterR ... demPPP.pdf
In-person Voting Hours for the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary
Beginning January 30, 2020 – Through February 28, 2020
Monday – Friday 8:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Extended Hours: Saturday, February 22nd 9:00a.m. - 1:00p.m., Thursday, February 27th 8:30a.m. - 7:00 p.m.
Bad ass. I did not know about this!
Fuck 2019 2020

Ezekiel 23:20

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:13 am
I don't think any stance that would aid or lead to another Trump term could be considered "moral." Jump the Godwin Rule shark and for sake of analagy substitute "Hitler" for "Trump". Could helping to keep Hitler in power be considered moral?

Won't happen with me, but I can understand people being disgusted with having to choose between two ancient, wealthy, White men that have supported racist policies. Bloomberg would be a temporary fix, but arguably a systemic backtrack.

Well, you can't have it both ways on the financing - a candidate who accepts donations incurs some obligation to those who donate - the candidate who self-finances "has no accountability." The candidate who cannot self-fund nor accepts contributions loses.

Who said that I was arguing both ways? Money reduces democratic accountability, single source money reduces it even further.

Sure, I'd vote for Bloomberg. Probably first choice at this point. When you look at RealClearPolitics, in every battleground state, Biden beats Trump in every poll. But assuming Biden's biting the big one and is effectively out. RCP polls show that in almost all polls, Bernie will beat Trump; and in some, maybe half, Warren win. Pete doesn't. Maybe one or two polls in a couple of states. Klobuchar didn't have enough support to be included in the polls, apparently. So if Biden has tanked, and Warren is headed the same way, we're left with Bernie, Pete, and Amy.
My heart can't stand the excitement. :roll:
You didn't care about the polls when they said that Bernie! would do better vs. 45SHOLE than Hillary would :P .

More seriously: I get your point, IF the polls show that Bloomberg will do best many Dems will justifiably make that their prime consideration.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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O Really
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:28 am

You didn't care about the polls when they said that Bernie! would do better vs. 45SHOLE than Hillary would :P .

Sure, but that was then. Different people, different circumstances. I was a Hillary fan who didn't really believe Trump was going to win. Burned twice, changed viewpoint.

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:46 am
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:28 am
You didn't care about the polls when they said that Bernie! would do better vs. 45SHOLE than Hillary would :P .
Sure, but that was then. Different people, different circumstances. I was a Hillary fan who didn't really believe Trump was going to win. Burned twice, changed viewpoint.
Good answer.

Bernie!, Pete, and Amy have put the time and effort into building cadres of supporters that donate to and work for their election. To me, this is what democracy is really about. So far, all Bloomberg has done is buy voters with slick TV, even hiring social media "influencers" to create astroturf (aka San Diego "lawn" ;) ). This bugs me.

I don't think things will have changed enough by the 3/3 NC primary for my opinion to change. However, as I said I'm not disgusted by Bloomberg. Could be I'll be rooting for him later on in the primaries.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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O Really
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:03 pm
So far, all Bloomberg has done is buy voters with slick TV, even hiring social media "influencers" to create astroturf (aka San Diego "lawn" ;) ).
That's one way to look at it. Alternatively, one could say that Bloomberg has gone to great personal expense and effort to take the most efficient (and possibly most effective) path to getting his viewpoint out and become better known to a wider electorate. How many whistle-stops/town meetings would he have to do to get the same effect as one ad in a major market? And do you really learn more about a candidate from a speech (even in person) where s/he says the same thing as in the ads? And it's not like the other candidates aren't running their own ads. Is it wrong to skip caucus/primaries in a couple of states that, one of which isn't likely Dem and the other has 4 votes, in order to focus on a bigger pie? A candidate has to get close to 2,000 delegate votes to win nomination. NH has 24. Iowa, which is likely Trump, has 56. How much time/effort/money have the other candidates spent chasing those? And, in the end, what did they get? Nobody won with a big enough margin to get any significant advantage.

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:29 pm
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:03 pm
Bernie!, Pete, and Amy have put the time and effort into building cadres of supporters that donate to and work for their election. To me, this is what democracy is really about. So far, all Bloomberg has done is buy voters with slick TV, even hiring social media "influencers" to create astroturf (aka San Diego "lawn" ;) ). This bugs me.
That's one way to look at it. Alternatively, one could say that Bloomberg has gone to great personal expense and effort to take the most efficient (and possibly most effective) path to getting his viewpoint out and become better known to a wider electorate. How many whistle-stops/town meetings would he have to do to get the same effect as one ad in a major market? And do you really learn more about a candidate from a speech (even in person) where s/he says the same thing as in the ads? And it's not like the other candidates aren't running their own ads. Is it wrong to skip caucus/primaries in a couple of states that, one of which isn't likely Dem and the other has 4 votes, in order to focus on a bigger pie? A candidate has to get close to 2,000 delegate votes to win nomination. NH has 24. Iowa, which is likely Trump, has 56. How much time/effort/money have the other candidates spent chasing those? And, in the end, what did they get? Nobody won with a big enough margin to get any significant advantage.
Sorry if I was unclear. I was not trying to compare the personal effort and sacrifice among the candidates. Rather, I was comparing the result - bunches of sacrificing citizen supporters for all of the other candidates vs astroturf for Bloomberg. I think real community, country and democracy are created by our active involvement, not by who we vote for and elect.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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O Really
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:09 pm
I think real community, country and democracy are created by our active involvement, not by who we vote for and elect.
I don't necessarily agree with that, but understand the viewpoint. But at some point, the astroturf turns into real grass and a supporter who became one based on tv ads or whatever is still a supporter. Bloomberg's trying to create name recognition and turn that into support/votes. I've got no problem with that.

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neoplacebo
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:18 am
neoplacebo wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:42 am
Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:45 am
Got my absentee ballot for the primary. It's in xdp format. What a pain in the ass. I'm using a Mac (obligatory fuck Apple/Macs. Overpriced, money making scheme) and cannot figure out how to open this doc. Looks like it's a proprietary Adobe format. Why make things a pain in the ass? Why not a PDF?
I would urge you to register in SC NOW before it's too late to vote in November. I am assuming you're still voting in NJ. They may have already taken you off the rolls; it didn't take NC long at all to purge me after I left and moved to TN.
I'm registered here in SC, been a resident for 15 years (has it really been that long already?). I've got my application printed and filled out. Gonna go turn it in in person tomorrow and get my absentee ballot!
Ah, sorry. I just assumed you're still registered in NJ since I remember you posting about going up there pretty often.


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Whack9
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Re: 2020 Elections

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neoplacebo wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:21 pm
Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:18 am
neoplacebo wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:42 am
Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:45 am
Got my absentee ballot for the primary. It's in xdp format. What a pain in the ass. I'm using a Mac (obligatory fuck Apple/Macs. Overpriced, money making scheme) and cannot figure out how to open this doc. Looks like it's a proprietary Adobe format. Why make things a pain in the ass? Why not a PDF?
I would urge you to register in SC NOW before it's too late to vote in November. I am assuming you're still voting in NJ. They may have already taken you off the rolls; it didn't take NC long at all to purge me after I left and moved to TN.
I'm registered here in SC, been a resident for 15 years (has it really been that long already?). I've got my application printed and filled out. Gonna go turn it in in person tomorrow and get my absentee ballot!
Ah, sorry. I just assumed you're still registered in NJ since I remember you posting about going up there pretty often.
Yeah man I was the only one out of my family that escaped, the rest are still trapped.
Fuck 2019 2020

Ezekiel 23:20


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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Vrede too »

Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:46 pm
Cringey Bloomberg plug:
:lol: :thumbup:
Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:44 pm
neoplacebo wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:21 pm
Ah, sorry. I just assumed you're still registered in NJ since I remember you posting about going up there pretty often.
Yeah man I was the only one out of my family that escaped, the rest are still trapped.
NJ > SC = frying pan > fire. :P
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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Re: 2020 Elections

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1 CAT FAN wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:16 am
Marcia Fudge (D-Ohio) “ We’re a party in chaos.”
The last week was not just the best week of Trump presidency but it was the week the media and their army of democrat strategists and sycophants realized their party was on the verge of extinction.
https://conservativehardliner.com/trump-broke-democrats

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

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Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:19 am
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:48 am
If you're going there in person, anyhow, and not using snail mail, which has always worked fine for me, why not just early vote?
https://www.greenvillecounty.org/VoterR ... demPPP.pdf
In-person Voting Hours for the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary
Beginning January 30, 2020 – Through February 28, 2020
Monday – Friday 8:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Extended Hours: Saturday, February 22nd 9:00a.m. - 1:00p.m., Thursday, February 27th 8:30a.m. - 7:00 p.m.
Bad ass. I did not know about this!
You're lucky to have a month of early voting, which generally benefits minorities and the poor. We have about 3 weeks in NC.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
1312.

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Whack9
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Whack9 »

Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:20 pm
Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:19 am
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:48 am
If you're going there in person, anyhow, and not using snail mail, which has always worked fine for me, why not just early vote?
https://www.greenvillecounty.org/VoterR ... demPPP.pdf
In-person Voting Hours for the Democratic Presidential Preference Primary
Beginning January 30, 2020 – Through February 28, 2020
Monday – Friday 8:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Extended Hours: Saturday, February 22nd 9:00a.m. - 1:00p.m., Thursday, February 27th 8:30a.m. - 7:00 p.m.
Bad ass. I did not know about this!
You're lucky to have a month of early voting, which generally benefits minorities and the poor. We have about 3 weeks in NC.
It sounds like I show up at the address listed above? Or do you generally show up at your polling place? Never done it before.
Fuck 2019 2020

Ezekiel 23:20

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Vrede too
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Vrede too »

Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:48 pm
It sounds like I show up at the address listed above? Or do you generally show up at your polling place? Never done it before.
Early voting usually happens at just one locale. It looks like yours is: County Square, Conference Room A & B. If that's not a complete enough address, call them at: 864-467-7264.
"When you can make people believe absurdities, you can make them commit atrocities."
-- Voltaire
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Whack9
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Re: 2020 Elections

Unread post by Whack9 »

Vrede too wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:00 pm
Whack9 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:48 pm
It sounds like I show up at the address listed above? Or do you generally show up at your polling place? Never done it before.
Early voting usually happens at just one locale. It looks like yours is: County Square, Conference Room A & B. If that's not a complete enough address, call them at: 864-467-7264.
Bad ass thanks man
Fuck 2019 2020

Ezekiel 23:20

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