College football

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Vrede too
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:52 pm

billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:41 pm
I misunderstood before and now I agree

Since Auburn came closer, should they be ranked higher than bammer? (I'm comfortable where we are now)
One could argue that, but 2 losses is such an automatic disqualification that I don't much worry about it. How would one sort out the "best" 2-loss team among: Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Wisconsin & Notre Dame?

The worst thing is that your 2 losses hurt OR. Thanks a lot :roll: .

AP Rankings

1 LSU (9-0) I agree.
2 Ohio State (9-0) Up from #3. I agree.
3 Clemson (10-0) :bs: No ranked opponents.
4 Alabama (8-1) See Minnesota below. Okay, I guess. I can't say that any other 1-loss team got beaten by a better team than LSU.
5 Georgia (8-1) Why isn't losing to unranked SC worse than Oregon's losing to #13 Auburn?
6 Oregon (8-1) Up from #7. Going to need help, things like Auburn > Alabama & Georgia, Baylor losing, Clemson losing, etc. I'm not sure if the Big 10 can help it. I figure that one of Ohio State, Minnesota & Penn State is in with 0 or 1 losses.
7 Minnesota (9-0) Up from #13. Predictable, but beating Penn State is as good as almost everyone else's wins.
8 Utah (8-1) Ugh.
9 Penn State (8-1) Ugh.
10 Oklahoma (8-1) Ugh.
11 Florida (8-2)
12 Baylor (9-0) DOWN from #11 :wtf: . Not a strong sched, but it did beat #25 Oklahoma State, which is a better win than Clemson has had. Next up Oklahoma & Texas - poser or not?
13 Auburn (7-2)
14 Michigan (7-2)
15 Wisconsin (7-2)
16 Notre Dame (7-2)
17 Cincinnati (8-1) 1st of 4 ranked from the AAC! UCF paved the way.
18 Memphis (8-1)
19 Boise State (8-1) Fuckin' BYU.
20 SMU (9-1)
21 Navy (7-1)
22 Texas (6-3)
23 Iowa (6-3)
24 Indiana (7-2)
25 Oklahoma State (6-3)
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Re: College football

Unread post by billy.pilgrim » Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:06 pm

Vrede too wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:52 pm
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:41 pm
I misunderstood before and now I agree

Since Auburn came closer, should they be ranked higher than bammer? (I'm comfortable where we are now)
One could argue that, but 2 losses is such an automatic disqualification that I don't much worry about it. How would one sort out the "best" 2-loss team among: Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Wisconsin & Notre Dame?

The worst thing is that your 2 losses hurt OR. Thanks a lot :roll: .
Have to pick 2, no dart boards involved
Florida beat Auburn, so that's easy for one
The rest I don't watch, but I don't care much for Michigan's coach and have never liked ND, so Wisconsin is 2
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:11 am

billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:06 pm
Have to pick 2, no dart boards involved
Florida beat Auburn, so that's easy for one
The rest I don't watch, but I don't care much for Michigan's coach and have never liked ND, so Wisconsin is 2
Okay, but if I do you'll have to tell me why. A 2-loss team in the playoffs is unlikely, 2 of them damn near impossible.

You didn't ID the criteria.

If it's who I like - Wisconsin & Michigan. Wisconsin first since it beat Michigan . . . and no Harbaugh ;) .

If it's who I think is best, the easy answer is the AP ranking, Florida then Auburn.

If I'm sorting it out, I just look at wins vs ranked opponents and losses to make it easier. Then:
Eliminate Notre Dame. Like Clemson and Bama, no wins vs a ranked opponent.
Then drop Wisconsin. It lost to unranked Illinois.
Then, Michigan does have 2 wins vs ranked teams (as does Wisconsin) - 16 Notre Dame & 23 Iowa.
However, Florida and Auburn beat better teams - 13 Auburn & 6 Oregon respectively. They also lost to better combined teams than Michigan.
So, that leads me to agreeing with the AP ranking, Florida then Auburn since Florida won the head-to-head. In fact, looks like I'm agreeing with the relative AP ranking for all 5.

My scratch sheet:
11 Florida
beat: 13 Auburn
lost to: 1 LSU, 5 Georgia

13 Auburn
beat: 6 Oregon
lost to: 1 LSU, 11 Florida

14 Michigan
beat: 16 Notre Dame, 23 Iowa
lost to: 9 Penn State, 15 Wisconsin

15 Wisconsin
beat: 14 Michigan, 23 Iowa
lost to: 2 Ohio State, Illinois

16 Notre Dame
beat:
lost to: 5 Georgia, 14 Michigan
Kudos to Oregon, Auburn & Michigan for scheduling strong non-conference opponents. Notre Dame scheduled strength, too. Florida & Wisconsin not so much.
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Re: College football

Unread post by billy.pilgrim » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:42 am

Vrede too wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:11 am
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:06 pm
Have to pick 2, no dart boards involved
Florida beat Auburn, so that's easy for one
The rest I don't watch, but I don't care much for Michigan's coach and have never liked ND, so Wisconsin is 2
Okay, but if I do you'll have to tell me why. A 2-loss team in the playoffs is unlikely, 2 of them damn near impossible.

You didn't ID the criteria.

If it's who I like - Wisconsin & Michigan. Wisconsin first since it beat Michigan . . . and no Harbaugh ;) .

If it's who I think is best, the easy answer is the AP ranking, Florida then Auburn.

If I'm sorting it out, I just look at wins vs ranked opponents and losses to make it easier. Then:
Eliminate Notre Dame. Like Clemson and Bama, no wins vs a ranked opponent.
Then drop Wisconsin. It lost to unranked Illinois.
Then, Michigan does have 2 wins vs ranked teams (as does Wisconsin) - 16 Notre Dame & 23 Iowa.
However, Florida and Auburn beat better teams - 13 Auburn & 6 Oregon respectively. They also lost to better combined teams than Michigan.
So, that leads me to agreeing with the AP ranking, Florida then Auburn since Florida won the head-to-head. In fact, looks like I'm agreeing with the relative AP ranking for all 5.

My scratch sheet:
11 Florida
beat: 13 Auburn
lost to: 1 LSU, 5 Georgia

13 Auburn
beat: 6 Oregon
lost to: 1 LSU, 11 Florida

14 Michigan
beat: 16 Notre Dame, 23 Iowa
lost to: 9 Penn State, 15 Wisconsin

15 Wisconsin
beat: 14 Michigan, 23 Iowa
lost to: 2 Ohio State, Illinois

16 Notre Dame
beat:
lost to: 5 Georgia, 14 Michigan
Kudos to Oregon, Auburn & Michigan for scheduling strong non-conference opponents. Notre Dame scheduled strength, too. Florida & Wisconsin not so much.
I don't agree with your take on strength of schedule. Why should a team from a strong conference or very strong conference be expected to schedule additional tough games? Not counting Oregon, we play 5 or 6 top 12 teams. I'm glad we played Oregon, but even without that game Auburn's schedule is probably tougher than any of the other 5.
Strength of schedule is about strength of opponents. If your conference is weak, you should have to play tough nonconference games for respect.
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:07 am

billy.pilgrim wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:42 am
I don't agree with your take on strength of schedule. Why should a team from a strong conference or very strong conference be expected to schedule additional tough games? Not counting Oregon, we play 5 or 6 top 12 teams. I'm glad we played Oregon, but even without that game Auburn's schedule is probably tougher than any of the other 5.
Strength of schedule is about strength of opponents. If your conference is weak, you should have to play tough nonconference games for respect.
It was more about expressing respect for the teams that scheduled strong non-conference opponents, and perhaps overly snarky towards Florida & Wisconsin. The scratch sheet shows that they played as strong schedules as anyone. That said, without their non-conference scheduling:
Oregon would not have played and almost beaten any quality teams. It might be lower than #6.
Auburn would not have beaten any quality teams. It would be lower than #13.
Michigan's best win would have been vs 23 Iowa. It would be lower than #14.
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Re: College football

Unread post by billy.pilgrim » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:41 am

Vrede too wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:07 am
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:42 am
I don't agree with your take on strength of schedule. Why should a team from a strong conference or very strong conference be expected to schedule additional tough games? Not counting Oregon, we play 5 or 6 top 12 teams. I'm glad we played Oregon, but even without that game Auburn's schedule is probably tougher than any of the other 5.
Strength of schedule is about strength of opponents. If your conference is weak, you should have to play tough nonconference games for respect.
It was more about expressing respect for the teams that scheduled strong non-conference opponents, and perhaps overly snarky towards Florida & Wisconsin. The scratch sheet shows that they played as strong schedules as anyone. That said, without their non-conference scheduling:
Oregon would not have played and almost beaten any quality teams. It might be lower than #6.
Auburn would not have beaten any quality teams. It would be lower than #13.
Michigan's best win would have been vs 23 Iowa. It would be lower than #14.
Wins and losses are tough in college football - that old "any given day" thing.
I think lsu has the better team, but Auburn has a lot better defense. Even giving lsu the better team status, one break going differently and we would have won or lost by more.

Florida had their good day and Auburn played its worst, they won, we lost, but I think we have the better.team.

But then - we still have our two? toughest games ahead.

Edit
So what happens if Auburn beats georgia and bammer? If the same defense that held lsu to 23 along with a little more offense from our freshmen show up, it isn't completely farfetched that we could win those.
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:38 am

billy.pilgrim wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:41 am
Wins and losses are tough in college football - that old "any given day" thing.
I think lsu has the better team, but Auburn has a lot better defense. Even giving lsu the better team status, one break going differently and we would have won or lost by more.

Florida had their good day and Auburn played its worst, they won, we lost, but I think we have the better.team.

But then - we still have our two? toughest games ahead.

Edit
So what happens if Auburn beats georgia and bammer? If the same defense that held lsu to 23 along with a little more offense from our freshmen show up, it isn't completely farfetched that we could win those.
I’m counting on you to ensure that only 1 SEC team is in the playoffs :twisted: , though it's slightly possible Auburn could be the 2nd team with 2 losses :angry-banghead: .

My analysis is not deep, mostly just wins and losses, and not even paying much attention to scores.

You never told me why I picked the 2 best 2-loss teams. Why is WI your #2 among them and not Auburn?
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:24 am

Go:

(11)Florida Offline @Missouri
@(16)Notre Dame -9.5 (21)Navy. Sink it back out if the rankings.
Wake Forest +32 @(3)Clemson. :lol:
@Rutgers +51 (2)Ohio St. Really? Why play?
@Iowa St -6.5 (22)Texas. AP and Vegas disagree.
@(13)Auburn +2.5 (5)Georgia. Respect for Auburn that the spread is so narrow.
(18)Memphis -9.5 @Houston.
(7)Minnesota -3 @(23)Iowa. Disrespect for Minnesota that the spread is so narrow.
(10)Oklahoma -9 @(12)Baylor. Tough one, I THINK it's more likely to keep both out if they both have a loss. Thoughts?
@(6)Oregon -26.5 Arizona

3 games between ranked teams, seems to be the usual. 6 single digit spreads, also about the norm.
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Re: College football

Unread post by billy.pilgrim » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:19 pm

Vrede too wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:38 am
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:41 am
Wins and losses are tough in college football - that old "any given day" thing.
I think lsu has the better team, but Auburn has a lot better defense. Even giving lsu the better team status, one break going differently and we would have won or lost by more.

Florida had their good day and Auburn played its worst, they won, we lost, but I think we have the better.team.

But then - we still have our two? toughest games ahead.

Edit
So what happens if Auburn beats georgia and bammer? If the same defense that held lsu to 23 along with a little more offense from our freshmen show up, it isn't completely farfetched that we could win those.
I’m counting on you to ensure that only 1 SEC team is in the playoffs :twisted: , though it's slightly possible Auburn could be the 2nd team with 2 losses :angry-banghead: .

My analysis is not deep, mostly just wins and losses, and not even paying much attention to scores.

You never told me why I picked the 2 best 2-loss teams. Why is WI your #2 among them and not Auburn?
I don't know anything about WI, but suspect that Auburn is the best 2 loss team .. But at 2 losses I mostly stop ranking teams ... especially teams that still have to play Alabama and Georgia.
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:31 pm

billy.pilgrim wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:19 pm
I don't know anything about WI, but suspect that Auburn is the best 2 loss team .. But at 2 losses I mostly stop ranking teams ... especially teams that still have to play Alabama and Georgia.
I'm totally confused. Were you not telling me that I "Have to pick 2," that Florida is the best 2 loss team, and that you were choosing Wisconsin over Auburn?
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:06 pm
Have to pick 2, no dart boards involved
Florida beat Auburn, so that's easy for one
The rest I don't watch, but I don't care much for Michigan's coach and have never liked ND, so Wisconsin is 2
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Re: College football

Unread post by billy.pilgrim » Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:42 pm

Vrede too wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:31 pm
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:19 pm
I don't know anything about WI, but suspect that Auburn is the best 2 loss team .. But at 2 losses I mostly stop ranking teams ... especially teams that still have to play Alabama and Georgia.
I'm totally confused. Were you not telling me that I "Have to pick 2," that Florida is the best 2 loss team, and that you were choosing Wisconsin over Auburn?
billy.pilgrim wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:06 pm
Have to pick 2, no dart boards involved
Florida beat Auburn, so that's easy for one
The rest I don't watch, but I don't care much for Michigan's coach and have never liked ND, so Wisconsin is 2
Straight stats, I pick Florida and understand why ap voters would too, but I watched both Auburn losses and these admittedly partisan eyes say that Auburn is much better than Florida.
I may not be saying the same if we get to 4 losses.
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:56 am

Vrede too wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:24 am
Go:

(11)Florida Offline -7 @Missouri
Wow, that’s a crazy small spread after 5-4 Missouri has lost 3 in a row, including to Vandy and KY. I might have picked Missouri, but nope. Your thoughts?
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:04 am

Playoff Selection Committee Poll

See my opinions on the AP poll above, little has changed.

1 LSU (9-0)
2 Ohio State (9-0)
3 Clemson (10-0) Up from #5 :bs: . No ranked opponents.
4 Georgia (8-1) Up from #6.
5 Alabama (8-1) Down from #3, interesting :thumbup: .
6 Oregon (8-1) Creeping closer.
7 Utah (8-1)
8 Minnesota (9-0) Should be higher?
9 Penn State (8-1)
10 Oklahoma (8-1)
11 Florida (8-2)
12 Auburn (7-2)
13 Baylor (9-0)
14 Wisconsin (7-2)
15 Michigan (7-2)
16 Notre Dame (7-2) Same order for 2-loss teams as AP except Wisconsin & Michigan traded.
17 Cincinnati (8-1)
18 Memphis (8-1)
19 Texas (6-3)
20 Iowa (6-3)
21 Boise State (8-1)
22 Oklahoma State (6-3)
23 Navy (7-1)
24 Kansas State (6-3)
25 Appalachian State (8-1) Yes! Take that, Indiana.
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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:19 am

Final Yahoo spreads
Vrede too wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:24 am
Go:

(11)Florida Offline -7 @Missouri
Wow, that’s a crazy small spread after 5-4 Missouri has lost 3 in a row, including to Vandy and KY. I might have picked Missouri, but nope. Your thoughts?
@(16)Notre Dame -9.5 -9 (21)Navy. Sink it back out if the rankings.
Wake Forest +32 +34.5 @(3)Clemson. :lol:
@Rutgers +51 +52 (2)Ohio St. Really? Why play?
@Iowa St -6.5 (22)Texas. AP and Vegas disagree.
I mis-posted earlier. I want (22)Texas, now +7 @Iowa St.
@(13)Auburn +2.5 (5)Georgia. Respect for Auburn that the spread is so narrow.
(18)Memphis -9.5 -10.5 @Houston.
(7)Minnesota -3 +3 @(23)Iowa. Disrespect for Minnesota that the spread is so narrow. I misread earlier, total disrespect for Minnesota that Iowa is favored!
(10)Oklahoma -9 -10 @(12)Baylor. Tough one, I THINK it's more likely to keep both out if they both have a loss. Thoughts?
@(6)Oregon -26.5 -27 Arizona

3 4 (miscounted earlier) games between ranked teams, seems to be the usual. 6 5 single digit spreads, also about the norm.
Adding in, go:
(24)Indiana +14.5 @(9)Penn St. Knock it out of the top 10.
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Re: College football

Unread post by billy.pilgrim » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:37 am

George Carlin said “The owners know the truth. It’s called the American dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.”

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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:49 pm

O Really wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:41 pm
... Heels lose ...
Might as well get it over with early in the weekend.
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Re: College football

Unread post by O Really » Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:29 am

Vrede too wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:49 pm
O Really wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:41 pm
... Heels lose ...
Might as well get it over with early in the weekend.
:lol: :lol:

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Re: College football

Unread post by Vrede too » Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:29 am

O Really wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:29 am
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:49 pm
O Really wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:41 pm
... Heels lose ...
Might as well get it over with early in the weekend.
:lol: :lol:
Did you watch?

Usual misery through 3 quarters, probably lost a lot of NC viewers.
Rally to tie from 10-24 in the 4th quarter.
Rally to tie from 24-27 with 0:13 left after blowing the opportunity to win.
Utter fail in OT1.

Not just a loss, but really ground it in :roll: .
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Re: College football

Unread post by billy.pilgrim » Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:21 pm

Vrede too wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:29 am
O Really wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:29 am
Vrede too wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:49 pm
O Really wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:41 pm
... Heels lose ...
Might as well get it over with early in the weekend.
:lol: :lol:
Did you watch?

Usual misery through 3 quarters, probably lost a lot of NC viewers.
Rally to tie from 10-24 in the 4th quarter.
Rally to tie from 24-27 with 0:13 left after blowing the opportunity to win.
Utter fail in OT1.

Not just a loss, but really ground it in :roll: .

I would have watched but didn't look to see who was playing.

Glad I didn't, I may need the additional stress capacity tomorrow.
George Carlin said “The owners know the truth. It’s called the American dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.”

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Re: College football

Unread post by O Really » Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:54 pm

Vrede too wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:29 am

Did you watch?
Didn't get it out here. Probably wouldn't have watched anyway. Would have come on at 5:00 and besides, why ruin an otherwise beautiful day with UNC football?
(apologies to Kenny Rogers/Kim Carnes)

"Don't fall in love with the Tarheels,
'Cause they'll always mess your mind
Just when you think they've got it going
They'll lose in overtime

Don't fall in love with the Tarheels
'Cause they'll break you every time...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOU4TWGSxZM

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