US gets 30-60K per year die from flu. But the death count isn't really the main issue. Flu has vaccines, some treatments, and some predictability. COVID-19 has none of those and it's behaviour isn't known well. So sure, you've only got 16K in the cart so far, but it's still rising and rising quickly.
Most years flu mortality is predictable, heavily weighted to the very old, already very sick and the very young. CV-19 mortality is weighted to the very old and already very sick, but plenty of younger adults are also dying, more so than with the flu. Kids seem to be doing pretty well.
This disease seems to be worse than 'flu, but not orders of magnitude worse.
It's not the Black Death.
The question we should be focussing on is "will the economic damage caused by these measures to control Corvid19 cause more or fewer early deaths than Corvid19, over a given time?"
We know to reasonable standards of accuracy the relationship between economic metrics and life expectancy.
Economic modelling is, within margins, something we can rely on.
I suspect that the politicians' calculations look at who will vote and on what basis, rather than what will save most lives.
This disease seems to be worse than 'flu, but not orders of magnitude worse.
The flu usually has about 0.1% mortality. So far, it looks like it's 1% for CV-19.
It's not the Black Death.
We'll see.
The question we should be focussing on is "will the economic damage caused by these measures to control Corvid19 cause more or fewer early deaths than Corvid19, over a given time?"
PINO has been persuaded to back off that line.
We know to reasonable standards of accuracy the relationship between economic metrics and life expectancy.
Not a short term economic disruption. You're talking about lifetime or much of one.
Economic modelling is, within margins, something we can rely on.
Epidemiology, too.
I suspect that the politicians' calculations look at who will vote and on what basis, rather than what will save most lives.
Agreed.
A clown with a flamethrower still has a flamethrower.
-- Charlie Sykes on MSNBC
1312. ETTD.
.1 to 1.0 is an order of magnitude.
Roadhouse Blues; the Doors......I woke up this mornin' got myself a beer....the future's uncertain, the end is always near. An old song with new relevance.
This disease seems to be worse than 'flu, but not orders of magnitude worse.
The flu usually has about 0.1% mortality. So far, it looks like it's 1% for CV-19.
It's not the Black Death.
We'll see.
The question we should be focussing on is "will the economic damage caused by these measures to control Corvid19 cause more or fewer early deaths than Corvid19, over a given time?"
PINO has been persuaded to back off that line.
We know to reasonable standards of accuracy the relationship between economic metrics and life expectancy.
Not a short term economic disruption. You're talking about lifetime or much of one.
Economic modelling is, within margins, something we can rely on.
Epidemiology, too.
I suspect that the politicians' calculations look at who will vote and on what basis, rather than what will save most lives.
Agreed.
That's the key point.
PINO (President in name only? My guess) "has been persuaded". How? By whom?
This is one of the "fat guy on a railway track" moral questions.
.1 to 1.0 is an order of magnitude.
Roadhouse Blues; the Doors......I woke up this mornin' got myself a beer....the future's uncertain, the end is always near. An old song with new relevance.
It's within an order of magnitude.
I wouldn't like to see ungraduated responses.
If a thing is twice as bad as normal, lets have twice the response; if a thing is between 1 and 10 times as bad as normal, I'm uncomfortable with a 100 times or 1000 times response.
Just out of interest, does the US publish an annual report on influenza deaths, or is that too difficult with a fragmented, overpriced healthcare system?
Here in UK, where I am about as limey as the next man rather than, as here, limier than most, we lost appx. 16k dead last year to flu.
This year so far 1600 to Corvid.
US gets 30-60K per year die from flu. But the death count isn't really the main issue. Flu has vaccines, some treatments, and some predictability. COVID-19 has none of those and it's behaviour isn't known well. So sure, you've only got 16K in the cart so far, but it's still rising and rising quickly.
Not 16k.
1.6k
20 times that would nudge in to "worst flu death year in last 15 years".
... I suspect that the politicians' calculations look at who will vote and on what basis, rather than what will save most lives.
... Agreed.
That's the key point.
No one expects wise, apolitical leadership from IMPOSPOTUS.
PINO (President in name only? My guess)
Yes, we've got a thing here, usually aimed at moderates (generously) and traitors (ungenerously):
RINO = Republican in name only.
DINO = Democrat in name only.
My use of PINO is meant to indicate illegitimacy and incompetence, not to suggest moderation.
"has been persuaded". How? By whom?
My guess: By the epidemiologists and the public trusting them far more than it does Dolt .45.
This is one of the "fat guy on a railway track" moral questions.
Assuming that you mean the Trolley problem - Could be, but so far we don't have the solid evidence for how deadly the economic disruption can or will be. So, I don't have a moral dilemma in supporting the lockdowns.
A clown with a flamethrower still has a flamethrower.
-- Charlie Sykes on MSNBC
1312. ETTD.
We're not discussing extra deaths. Everyone will die.
We're discussing lost years of life.
Stunted economies shorten lives.
Corvid19 too. Which is greater?
I keep hearing that argument - that stunted economies shorten lives.
I mean yeah, maybe in this third world country. It doesn't have to though. If Trump hadn't already spent a shit ton of money it'd be nothing for the government to prop up the people for a few months.
If we don't isolate, then the economy will go down the crapper anyway because there will be no one left to work.
They think Jesus hates the Gays: Volunteers for the new coronavirus field hospital in Central Park must agree to a “statement of faith” declaring that sinners go to Hell and gays can’t get married.
The new coronavirus field hospital in Central Park is being run by Samaritan’s Purse, a notoriously anti-gay Christian hate group run by the equally notorious Franklin Graham. Adding insult to injury, the anti-gay conservative Christian organization demands that all volunteers adhere to their “statement of faith” which entails an explicitly anti-gay agenda.
The Gothamist reports:
According to the group’s website, all volunteers, including health care workers, should read and adhere to a statement of faith, in which marriage is defined as “exclusively the union of one genetic male and one genetic female” and the unrighteous are sentenced to “everlasting punishment in hell.”
That’s right, if you want to volunteer for the new coronavirus field hospital in Central Park you have to pinky swear that you believe that sinners go to Hell and gays can’t get married because it’s Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve.
I thought that was strictly an old testament rant. jesus was a progressive considering the times.
Trump: “We had the safest border in the history of our country - or at least recorded history. I guess maybe a thousand years ago it was even better.”
We're not discussing extra deaths. Everyone will die.
We're discussing lost years of life.
Stunted economies shorten lives.
Corvid19 too. Which is greater?
I keep hearing that argument - that stunted economies shorten lives.
I mean yeah, maybe in this third world country. It doesn't have to though. If Trump hadn't already spent a shit ton of money it'd be nothing for the government to prop up the people for a few months.
If we don't isolate, then the economy will go down the crapper anyway because there will be no one left to work.
Bingo. Quarantine and by all means close the daycare centers
Trump: “We had the safest border in the history of our country - or at least recorded history. I guess maybe a thousand years ago it was even better.”
They think Jesus hates the Gays: Volunteers for the new coronavirus field hospital in Central Park must agree to a “statement of faith” declaring that sinners go to Hell and gays can’t get married.
The new coronavirus field hospital in Central Park is being run by Samaritan’s Purse, a notoriously anti-gay Christian hate group run by the equally notorious Franklin Graham. Adding insult to injury, the anti-gay conservative Christian organization demands that all volunteers adhere to their “statement of faith” which entails an explicitly anti-gay agenda.
The Gothamist reports:
According to the group’s website, all volunteers, including health care workers, should read and adhere to a statement of faith, in which marriage is defined as “exclusively the union of one genetic male and one genetic female” and the unrighteous are sentenced to “everlasting punishment in hell.”
That’s right, if you want to volunteer for the new coronavirus field hospital in Central Park you have to pinky swear that you believe that sinners go to Hell and gays can’t get married because it’s Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve.
I thought that was strictly an old testament rant. jesus was a progressive considering the times.
Jesus was not progressive; he was a revolutionary. They killed him because of it so they say.
That looks like "eek! Coronavirus!! Let's panic!!".
Or like: "Very deadly pandemic. Let's take the actions that we know will flatten the curve and will likely save lives, and hope that our economies are resilient enough that catastrophic damage wasn't done to them unless and until it's proven that those panicking now about that possible outcome are shown to be correct."
A clown with a flamethrower still has a flamethrower.
-- Charlie Sykes on MSNBC
1312. ETTD.
We're not discussing extra deaths. Everyone will die.
We're discussing lost years of life.
Stunted economies shorten lives.
Corvid19 too. Which is greater?
I keep hearing that argument - that stunted economies shorten lives.
I mean yeah, maybe in this third world country. It doesn't have to though. If Trump hadn't already spent a shit ton of money it'd be nothing for the government to prop up the people for a few months.
If we don't isolate, then the economy will go down the crapper anyway because there will be no one left to work.
It's no secret that "stunted" economies shorten lives but that is an aggregate outcome over a long period of time. Virus time is something else; it's right now. People and the economy have a symbiotic relationship; neither can reasonably exist on its own. But to consider sacrificing people to "save" the economy is what I call bullshit. People make the economy; not the other way.
On April 14th we are flying to Hawaii, staying for 2 weeks then taking a cruise ship to Seattle. Booked in January. Do I have foresight or am I just lucky?
... we are packing some extra clothes for quarantine, hope they also do laundry.
I assume that you've also cancelled Hawaii. I hope that disappointment is as bad as it gets for you.
The cruise line cancelled so we get all our money back, Delta cancelled so we get a refund and not a "credit". I am sitting back and waiting for the rest of the flights to cancel. Hawaiian Air just cancelled so another refund. Now waiting on Air Canada and American to cancel their flights. If they cancel the flight you get a full refund, if you cancel you get a credit for a future flight if they are still in business. Hawaii was on my wifes bucket list, the disappointment comes from having the time and the money, and at the moment our health, and not being able to knock off that bucket list.
That's a bummer fershure, but you really really didn't want to get on a ship or plane now. Hopefully you'll get another go at it, but even if you don't, you'll be better off than to have taken the Hawaiian Trip to Hell and Not Back.
.1 to 1.0 is an order of magnitude.
Roadhouse Blues; the Doors......I woke up this mornin' got myself a beer....the future's uncertain, the end is always near. An old song with new relevance.
It's within an order of magnitude.
I wouldn't like to see ungraduated responses.
If a thing is twice as bad as normal, lets have twice the response; if a thing is between 1 and 10 times as bad as normal, I'm uncomfortable with a 100 times or 1000 times response.
An order of magnitude is generally and typically a tenfold increase from a previous condition. All of the following represent an order of magnitude increase whether you're talking about how many fish in a barrel or anything else. 1 to 10, 10 to 100, 100 to 1,000, 1.000 to 10,000. The actual amount of fish in the barrel and the difference between the existing and next order of magnitude gets higher the further up the scale you go with this. But each step up the progression is an order of magnitude increase. I don't know what you're talking about with "ungraduated responses" unless you're just referring to random chance increases of something that cannot be mathematically correlated to causal conditions.
