Single hurricane thread

[billy.pilgrim]

Sure, an argument can be made for "riding it out" particularly if there's some reasonable expectation that you probably won't be one of the ones hanging in a tree, but my issue is the drive to rebuild in places increasingly endangered. There comes a time to consider it a "total loss", clean up the debris and pull out the power and water lines.

As I said, I agree - mostly. They are welcome to live there, just not to expect others to bail them out after a storm.

[Vrede too]

AGW is going to lead to a lot of rethinking for individual choices and govt policy.

[billy.pilgrim]

You never know for sure. They have all experienced tens of storms predicted to strike them that didn't.
I agree with not subsidizing rebuilding, but people are gonna protect their property.

1407 vs 40 did know for sure.

We know that a big earthquake is going to hit LA and San Francisco, we know Ranier is going to blow ...

If people know for a fact that a big earthquake or an eruption is going to occur on Sunday, the smart ones will seek relative safety by Saturday.

It's obvious you haven't been told a dozen times to evacuate when no storm hits, or that it won't hit but it does, or don't remember trying and failing to evacuate during Rita or Opal or countless others.

This was a somewhat strange storm. It was really small, but super intense - a lot like the Port Charlotte storm in 04 or 05.

And then there are those in Grande Isle (maybe most) who just can't afford to evacuate.

[billy.pilgrim]

AGW is going to lead to a lot of rethinking for individual choices and govt policy.

AGW ?

Globe warming - as FriendOFred would say

[neoplacebo]

I had no idea how many people are normally on the island. I just thought that the forty who decided to stay are what one would call "hard core" or intrepid or stupid or crazy. And add to that the notion that this storm would be the "worst since the 1850's" and I'd say the holdouts harbor a feeling similar to religious certainty or cultism.

[Vrede too]

Anthropogenic (human caused) global warming.

It's obvious you haven't been told a dozen times to evacuate when no storm hits, or that it won't hit but it does, or don't remember trying and failing to evacuate during Rita or Opal or countless others.

Agreed, I'm no expert. That's why I defer to the 1407 that left vs the 40 that stayed.

This was a somewhat strange storm. It was really small, but super intense - a lot like the Port Charlotte storm in 04 or 05.

And then there are those in Grande Isle (maybe most) who just can't afford to evacuate.

:confusion-scratchheadblue: 1407 could afford to evacuate and I doubt that the 40 saved any money in the end.

[billy.pilgrim]

Anthropogenic (human caused) global warming.

It's obvious you haven't been told a dozen times to evacuate when no storm hits, or that it won't hit but it does, or don't remember trying and failing to evacuate during Rita or Opal or countless others.

Agreed, I'm no expert. That's why I defer to the 1407 that left vs the 40 that stayed.

This was a somewhat strange storm. It was really small, but super intense - a lot like the Port Charlotte storm in 04 or 05.

And then there are those in Grande Isle (maybe most) who just can't afford to evacuate.

:confusion-scratchheadblue: 1407 could afford to evacuate and I doubt that the 40 saved any money in the end.

I haven't been keeping up. This says 12 deaths in Louisiana and many more in NY and NJ.
The rain was predicted - should they have left too?

Are the 40 missing?

Of the 12 deaths
6 were people who did evacuate and
4 were dumbasses who ran a generator inside.

That only leaves 2

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hurric ... 021-09-04/

[Vrede too]

You're arguing with the 1407, 97% of Grande Isle. Were they wrong?

NY and NJ had unprecedented flooding, as did my MD town where 1 died. Those in known flash flood zones certainly should have sought higher ground.

[billy.pilgrim]

You're arguing with the 1407, 97% of Grande Isle. Were they wrong?

NY and NJ had unprecedented flooding, as did my MD town where 1 died. Those in known flash flood zones certainly should have sought higher ground.

But evidently they didn't.

I just looked at Grand Isle. Mostly commercial and small cheap vacation properties. Pictures show scattered damage ranging from completely destroyed homes to some with only shingle and siding damage.

What's the status of the 40?

I'm still only seeing 11 or 12 deaths in LA and nearly all were people who evacuated. No deaths in Grand Isle. 50 or so outside of LA.

Off topic mostly, but some relevance and well worth watching

https://www.npr.org/2012/06/26/15570447 ... eck-in-one

[Vrede too]

You're arguing with the 1407, 97% of Grande Isle. Were they wrong?

NY and NJ had unprecedented flooding, as did my MD town where 1 died. Those in known flash flood zones certainly should have sought higher ground.

But evidently they didn't.

Ummm, "unprecedented". Neither of us knows whether the dead were in known flash flood zones and heard and ignored the warnings or whether these were in spots that had never flooded before, except that I know that my MD town never floods.

I just looked at Grand Isle. Mostly commercial and small cheap vacation properties. Pictures show scattered damage ranging from completely destroyed homes to some with only shingle and siding damage.

You should send a correction to the mayor and other officials that describe it differently. Let us know what their response is. Anyhow, you're describing visible wind damage when we both know that storm surge is often the bigger danger. How high must the water have been to cause:

The island was covered in about 3 feet (0.91 m) of sand as well.

I found this:

Police chief: Ida hit Louisiana town harder than Katrina did (with 18 pics)

... About half of the properties in the town of about 1,400 were either heavily damaged or destroyed. Some of the homes were missing roofs or walls, while others had been reduced to piles of debris.

The main roadway on Tuesday was nearly completely covered in sand that had been brought in by the tidal surge. All of the utility poles were either leaning or had crashed down.

Grand Isle Police Chief Scooter Resweber rode out the storm with his fellow officers inside the police station Sunday. Ida made landfall just to the west with a wind gust recorded at 172 mph (277 kph) and seawater swamped the island....

Cynthia Lee Sheng, president of Jefferson Parish, where Grand Isle is located, described the island as “uninhabitable.” She said every building was damaged to some extent, there are numerous breaks in the levee system, and a strong odor of natural gas persists, “so that is not good.”

Resweber and other officers ventured out early Monday to assess the damage — the police chief's home was among the hundreds destroyed — as well as to check on the nearly 100 residents who had decided to stay behind. He said many residents regretted that decision, although no one was seriously hurt.

“I’ve ridden out other hurricanes — Hurricane Isaac, Katrina, Gustav, Ike — and this is no comparison whatsoever. This is the worst. … It’s just amazing that no one (here) was killed or even seriously injured.”

What's the status of the 40?

It's annoying that you keep asking a question that neither of us knows the answer to. They might be fine or they may regret having stayed and may have since left, anyhow, since the community is so devastated and utilities and services are nonexistent.

Back at you - How many of the 1407 wish they hadn't left? And again, are you saying that they were wrong to leave? Sure sounds like it.

I'm still only seeing 11 or 12 deaths in LA and nearly all were people who evacuated. No deaths in Grand Isle. 50 or so outside of LA....

Ummm, you're making the case that the evacuation of Grand Isle worked. Thank you. Plus, not dying, if that’s even certain at this point, is an incomplete measure. There are also physical and psychological injuries, perhaps permanent, to consider.

History

Grand Isle has been repeatedly pummeled by hurricanes throughout its history. On average, the town and barrier island of Grand Isle has been affected by tropical storms or hurricanes every 2.68 years (since 1877), with direct hits on average every 7.88 years. Some of the more severe are listed here....

Sounds like the residents are expert enough for the vast majority to have chosen to leave.

Idk what kind of levee system a barrier island has, but I don't think the feds should spend a penny of my money on it.

[billy.pilgrim]

It appears no one who stayed died and that nearly all of the deaths involved people fleeing, as is nearly always the case.

I've never heard of levees on a barrier island, but could be, it's Louisiana after all.

I'm not going to look up the tracks, but the storms the leo listed that I'm familiar with did not make a direct hit on Grand Isle. Katrina hit Mississippi, he was on the weak west side.

Maybe you have to live here. I can't imagine living where there are flash floods

Could be the Sheriff will be "utterly devestated" if he can't convince the feds to send millions, but then, when has law enforcement ever lied or exaggerated?
https://datausa.io/profile/geo/grand-isle-la

[Vrede too]

... You should send a correction to the mayor and other officials that describe it differently. Let us know what their response is. Anyhow, you're describing visible wind damage when we both know that storm surge is often the bigger danger. How high must the water have been to cause:

The island was covered in about 3 feet (0.91 m) of sand as well.

I found this:

Police chief: Ida hit Louisiana town harder than Katrina did (with 18 pics)

... Grand Isle Police Chief Scooter Resweber rode out the storm with his fellow officers inside the police station Sunday. Ida made landfall just to the west with a wind gust recorded at 172 mph (277 kph) and seawater swamped the island....

Resweber and other officers ventured out early Monday to assess the damage — the police chief's home was among the hundreds destroyed — as well as to check on the nearly 100 residents who had decided to stay behind. He said many residents regretted that decision, although no one was seriously hurt.

“I’ve ridden out other hurricanes — Hurricane Isaac, Katrina, Gustav, Ike — and this is no comparison whatsoever. This is the worst. … It’s just amazing that no one (here) was killed or even seriously injured.”

... Back at you - How many of the 1407 wish they hadn't left? And again, are you saying that they were wrong to leave? Sure sounds like it....

History

Grand Isle has been repeatedly pummeled by hurricanes throughout its history. On average, the town and barrier island of Grand Isle has been affected by tropical storms or hurricanes every 2.68 years (since 1877), with direct hits on average every 7.88 years. Some of the more severe are listed here....

Sounds like the residents are expert enough for the vast majority to have chosen to leave....

It appears no one who stayed died and that nearly all of the deaths involved people fleeing, as is nearly always the case.

Citation needed. Plus, unless you're claiming that some fleeing Grand Isle residents died, you've made no valid point.

I'm not going to look up the tracks, but the storms the leo listed that I'm familiar with did not make a direct hit on Grand Isle. Katrina hit Mississippi, he was on the weak west side.

No need to search, I had l already linked 3 of them.

Hurricane Katrina pounded Grand Isle for two days, August 28–29, 2005, destroying or damaging homes and camps along the entire island. Katrina's surge reached 5 ft (1.5 m) at Grand Isle. Large waves severely damaged the only bridge linking Grand Isle to the mainland....

Hurricane Gustav reached shore west of the island on September 1, 2008, at 9 am CDT, and hit it with a measured wind speed of 105 mph (169 km/h). It was one of the few locations in Louisiana affected while the storm was still classified as a major hurricane. While both storms' eyes passed the island at similar distances, Katrina's eastern passing caused the greatest damage on the bay side. The Gustav surge that washed over the island caused less damage than Katrina, in part due to the most vulnerable structures having already been destroyed by Katrina. Current construction codes prevented the rebuilding of such vulnerable structures. Barataria Pass water levels peaked at 5 ft (1.5 m) above recent high tide. Homes along Louisiana Highway 1 had 2 ft (0.6 m) of water below them. Large sections of levee/dunes were washed onto the highway.

Hurricane Ike passed far south of the island on September 11, 2008, while crews worked to restore power and repair the levee/dune damage caused by Gustav. Some sections of LA 1 west of the island were covered by 1 ft (0.3 m) of water. Wind gusts reached 50 mph (80 km/h) and Barataria Pass water levels reached 3 ft (0.9 m) above recent high tide while Ike was 200 miles (320 km) away....

Maybe you have to live here. I can't imagine living where there are flash floods

The vast majority of the people that live on Grand Isle fled. So, odds are great that I also would have left if I lived there. Again, are you saying that they were wrong to leave?

Could be the Sheriff

What Sheriff?

will be "utterly devestated"

Who said "utterly devestated [sic]"?

if he can't convince the feds to send millions

Idk if that's a police chief's job. It will be pols asking for levee money, and FEMA along with state and local EM pros do the assessments for emergency assistance.

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/grand-isle-la

Relevance?

[billy.pilgrim]

Population relevance

Chief or Sheriff or whatever

Ida hit dead on. Maybe you should check the paths of the hurricanes cited before you run with Katrina and Ike as examples.
I'm still waiting for the number that died on Grand Isle.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few deaths, but so far I can't find any.

[Vrede too]

Population relevance

There are different numbers floating around, and your link is for 2019. I went with the estimated 2021 census from Wiki, 1447, but accept that another figure may be more accurate.

Chief or Sheriff or whatever

Ida hit dead on. Maybe you should check the paths of the hurricanes cited before you run with Katrina and Ike as examples.

I didn't cite Katrina and Ike. The police chief did, you griped, and I posted the facts about them and Gustav, whatever conclusion one wants to draw. Apparently, living "here" only counts if a person agrees with you.

I'm still waiting for the number that died on Grand Isle.

I'm still waiting for the number that died leaving Grand Isle. Again, are you saying that the vast majority of storm-experienced folks were wrong to leave, or do you not have a point in this discussion?

I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few deaths, but so far I can't find any.

If not they were lucky, or they were in bunkers like the police and fire were. Either way, life sucks for them in the near term.

[O Really]

I think most of the time getting killed in a natural disaster is more a matter of luck no matter what anybody does.

[billy.pilgrim]

Population relevance

There are different numbers floating around, and your link is for 2019. I went with the estimated 2021 census from Wiki, 1447, but accept that another figure may be more accurate.

Chief or Sheriff or whatever

Ida hit dead on. Maybe you should check the paths of the hurricanes cited before you run with Katrina and Ike as examples.

I didn't cite Katrina and Ike. The police chief did, you griped, and I posted the facts about them and Gustav, whatever conclusion one wants to draw. Apparently, living "here" only counts if a person agrees with you.

I'm still waiting for the number that died on Grand Isle.

I'm still waiting for the number that died leaving Grand Isle. Again, are you saying that the vast majority of storm-experienced folks were wrong to leave, or do you not have a point in this discussion?

I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few deaths, but so far I can't find any.

If not they were lucky, or they were in bunkers like the police and fire were. Either way, life sucks for them in the near term.

I damn sure wouldn't want to be in a bunker unless it was elevated at least 12 or 15 feet. Wasn't the entire island underwater?
There have been several hurricanes when I didn't answer the door when the cops come around every half hour or so banging on my door and announcing over their loudspeakers, "this is your last warning, leave now or you will die!", so I guess they counted me as someone who evacuated.

[neoplacebo]

I could be standing on the street in an effort to avoid a hurricane and suddenly be struck by part of a stop sign that severs my carotid artery on the left side and I promptly bleed to death from it even though a stray strip of industrial insulation suddenly wraps around my neck. I start thinking "what the fuck" and then die. Or I could have left that fucking place and had somebody good looking wrap that shit around my neck.

[Vrede too]

I assume that a barrier island "bunker" affords protection from both wind and storm surge. A deluxe bunker has somebody good looking wrapping soft things around one's neck.

[billy.pilgrim]

I think most of the time getting killed in a natural disaster is more a matter of luck no matter what anybody does.

Bingo. This storm had incredible winds but was only 1/3 the size of Katrina, Andrew, Ivan (I think). Plus, at 50 miles wide, the cat 3 and 4 winds at close to the eye, say 20 to 25 miles wide along a projected landfall of 120 to 150 miles of coastline.

Granted there are horror stories from people who stayed, but I think I've heard more from people who ran. It all depends on making the right guess at the right time. My wife and 4 week old baby left the house well over 24 hours ahead of Ivan. After 6 hours she had only traveled 6 miles. Reports on the media and from our B'ham destination said to seek shelter now - she stayed at the hospital chapel. I goy stuck in a biker bar 1/3 mile from the water. My leaving during the eye was dangerous but ranks as one of my smartest moves.

[billy.pilgrim]

I assume that a barrier island "bunker" affords protection from both wind and storm surge. A deluxe bunker has somebody good looking wrapping soft things around one's neck.

Louisiana