2024 Elections

[Vrede too]

Shocker of the day.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1827460668758327455

We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala.
Harris's convention bounce has offset any impact — so far.

viewtopic.php?p=201888#p201888

My prediction: DonOLD's KINO bump, if any, will be hidden in Kamala's larger convention bump. We'll see.

Fta:

... Kennedy endorsed Donald Trump yesterday and announced that he was “suspending” his campaign. But he’ll only attempt to remove his name from the ballot in roughly 10 swing states, Kennedy said, leaving himself on the ballot in the many other red states and blue states where he’d gone to great effort to qualify. And his swing-state efforts may not be entirely successful, either. Our research suggests it’s probably too late to get off the ballot in Wisconsin, for instance. In North Carolina, the first state to begin early voting, his name has already been physically printed on the ballots in around 30 counties, so he’s probably stuck there, too.

2 campaigns and no one looked into when was too late? Smart.

... There are a couple of essential things to note here. First, yes, Trump has gained slightly more than Harris from the change, although it’s pretty minor, a net gain of 0.3 percentage points.1 And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, She’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. For now, there’s pretty much no change in the topline numbers — Harris is at around 53 percent to win the Electoral College, the same as in recent days....

(pay wall for rest of article)

[GoCubsGo]

Shocker of the day.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1827460668758327455

We removed RFK Jr. from our model. But it didn’t hurt Kamala.
Harris's convention bounce has offset any impact — so far.

viewtopic.php?p=201888#p201888

My prediction: DonOLD's KINO bump, if any, will be hidden in Kamala's larger convention bump. We'll see.

[Vrede too]

He's done it again.

Foo Fighters

Let us be clear.

Foo Fighters Have Blunt 1-Word Reply To Trump Using Song For RFK Jr. Intro
On social media, the rock band reacted to the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist walking out to "My Hero" at a Donald Trump rally in Arizona.

... The rock band offered just one word on X, formerly Twitter, when asked if the group had “let Trump use ‘My Hero’ to welcome RFK Jr. on stage.”

“No,” said the band, whose founder, Dave Grohl, has previously referred to Trump as a “massive jerk.”

... A spokesperson for Foo Fighters told Billboard on Friday that the Trump campaign did not ask for permission to use the song and that the band “would not have granted it.”

The spokesperson said that “appropriate actions are being taken” against the Republican’s campaign and that royalties the band receives in connection to Trump’s usage would be donated to Kamala Harris’ Democratic campaign.

Trump’s use of “My Hero” comes days after reports about a cease-and-desist from singer Beyoncé over his campaign’s use of “Freedom,” a song she approved for use by the Harris campaign.

Other artists and their representatives have similarly gone after Trump for using their songs without approval in the past.

Celine Dion’s team spoke out against Trump using “My Heart Will Go On” at a campaign rally earlier this month.

The family of Isaac Hayes threatened a copyright infringement lawsuit against the GOP nominee and his campaign for playing the song “Hold On, I’m Coming.”

And the estate of Sinéad O’Connor has slammed him for using her version of “Nothing Compares 2 U” at campaign rallies, calling on Trump and his associates to “desist from using her music immediately.”...

Always a stingy taker, always.

[O Really]

So some repugs are lamenting that Biden (who they have hated and lambasted for years) was "forced out" in a "coup" that somehow must have been "unconstitutional" or "undemocratic." How much ignorance can they fit into one set of whines?

Let's consider:
Had Biden been nominated? No. He won enough delegates to win, but he had not been nominated.

Was he "forced out"? Certainly encouraged, certainly coerced, but not in any way illegal or out of line with common political actions. Candidates in almost every election are encouraged to run or encouraged to drop out by party leaders in order to provide the best chance of winning. Dirty intra-party politics? Not really. Tough, maybe somewhat heartless, certainly sad, but not dirty.

Was it the best decision? Absolutely. No matter what Biden's actual abilities/condition, he could not have overcome the thousands of times his debate struggles, trips, pauses, word garble would be played before election day.

Taking Biden out of it, what usually happens to a candidates earned delegates when s/he drops out? They're cut loose to vote for whomever they want, but usually the candidate asks them to vote for the person s/he's endorsing - and they usually do. Unique to this election? Nope. Happens every election. Only difference is in the number of delegates Biden gave away.

Violated the will of "the voters?" Nope. They voted for Biden's delegates. Biden gave them away. What do they expect - that Biden can somehow be forced to run?

Dropping from the campaign should require resigning the Presidency? Why? Vastly different jobs with different requirements. Besides do those repugs really want to give Kamala a leg up as incumbent - a heroic one at that to step into the breach at a time of crisis?

Was Kamala the best replacement choice? Wasn't mine originally, but now clearly yes. Take any other name and put it in the events of the last month since Biden dropped out - would the situation be as good as today? Nope.

[O Really]

He's done it again.
...
Always a stingy taker, always.

I'm assuming (perhaps naively) that at some level, the organizers of these events are experienced and do this sort of stuff for a living. Getting approval for music use is a routine process and everybody knows you have to do it if you're going to use the music. It's handled by distribution companies - it's not like they'd have to call up Grohl personally and say please can we play your song. And yet it seems they never do it. So I'm guessing that the organizers know that their guy is so toxic that even the rubber stamper at the distribution company would refuse so they just take the do-it-and-pay-the-fine approach

[Vrede too]

I'm assuming (perhaps naively) that at some level, the organizers of these events are experienced and do this sort of stuff for a living. Getting approval for music use is a routine process and everybody knows you have to do it if you're going to use the music. It's handled by distribution companies - it's not like they'd have to call up Grohl personally and say please can we play your song. And yet it seems they never do it. So I'm guessing that the organizers know that their guy is so toxic that even the rubber stamper at the distribution company would refuse so they just take the do-it-and-pay-the-fine approach

There are only so many Ted Nugent songs that fit the occasion. Seems that it would be bad politics to keep getting rejected by these artists, but what do I know?

The first question Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received when he sat down with Fox News Sunday host Shannon Bream for his first big TV interview after dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Donald Trump was about reported text messages he sent recently in which he referred to Trump as a “terrible human being,” “barely human,” and “probably a sociopath.”...

I approve of this message. Just like Just Deranged KINO was repulsed by DonOLD, until he wasn't.

[O Really]

Everybody in politics has to have a little chameleon blood, and it's customary to say some negative things about primary opponents and then bury the hatchet for a general. But - but - I've never seen anybody walk back statements as bad and viscious as those thrown at Trump, and I've never known anybody to forgive things as vile and personal as Trump has said and then cast support. Yeah, I'm tawkin' about you, Nikki Heat, Loaferlight Lindsay Graham, JD and KINO and especially you Ted Cruz, you lily-livered snake-shit coward who let Trump insult your wife, your father, and of course you, and you just keep on fetch n carry.

[GoCubsGo]

What can be be trying to leverage?

The debate parameters are set, they are not going to change.

Maybe he hopes he'll get future debates on his terms, but he ain't driving that bus.

He does get to look foolish though, so there's that.



Plus he's getting a lot of publicity on Twitter.

Maybe this ad set him off.

[Vrede too]

It wouldn't have to be a "bomb-throwing loose cannon". After all, AOC supports an arms embargo, but some deal was cut to preclude her saying so. Differing opinions can be expressed respectfully, and I'm not sure that suppressing that perspective benefits Kamala's election. Michigan may be the price. How many more atrocities has Israel now been given free rein to commit?

Anti-war protestors furious over DNC shunning after Obama warns of 'Goldilocks complex'
The Uncommitted Movement is demanding a speaking slot at the DNC after initially being denied while the parents of an Israeli hostage spoke Wednesday evening.

The Uncommitted National Movement has slammed the Democratic party for initially banning them from speaking at the Chicago convention.

In response, the anti-war, pro-Palestine group that has formed in light of the Israel-Hamas war gathered outside the United Center, where the DNC is taking place, on Wednesday evening to stage a sit-in.

Demonstrations also previously emerged outside Harris' downtown hotel and Chicago's Israeli Consulate, where at least 56 people were arrested after clashing with police on Tuesday evening, according to local news reports.

Inside the hall, the parents of Israeli-American hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, cried for a ceasefire deal in exchange for the remaining hostages....



... Several other hostage families members and Jewish, Israeli-Americans praised the family while also urging the DNC to welcome a Palestinian representative to speak at the major affair.

"Rachel and Jon deserved every second on that stage. I also believe a Palestinian American voice deserves to be heard on that stage. I'd love to hear from [Rep. Ruwa Romman] and I hope the DNC will give her the chance to be heard," wrote Alana Weitchik, who has relatives held hostage in Gaza, on X Thursday morning.

Jewish-American groups including Bend the Arc: Jewish Action, If Not Now, Jewish Voice for Peace, and Peace Now have backed the request.

Jewish Israeli-American Hadar Susskind, founder of Peace Now, said Thursday morning that it is "not just a political but moral mistake" to not welcome a Palestinian speaker.

"I cried as [Rachel and Jon Goldberg-Polin] shared their story and their grief with the world. But grief and humanity are not limited to Israelis, and neither should empathy be so," he wrote, adding: "I stand with my Palestinian friends in their call to have their voices and their humanity recognized and valued in the same way."

... Several spoke at the event, including Palestinian-American Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib who called in and broke down into tears saying: "[In] every corner of my district, you will find a family that has been impacted by the genocide… I don't want to wait 10 years for [Democrats] to apologize to us."

... The demonstrations come on the heels of former First Lady Michelle Obama warning citizens not to have a "Goldilocks complex," seemingly referring to uncommitted voters who disapprove of the US arming of Israel amid the war, in her DNC speech on Tuesday evening, which led to some backlash.

Popular left-leaning YouTuber Hasan Piker slammed Democrats for dismissing anti-war protestors for "spoiling the fun" when their "demands are moral, reasonable and just," arguing that enforcing an arms embargo against US ally Israel to negotiate a ceasefire will "be electorally beneficial."

Uncommitted voters turned out in record numbers particularly in Michigan, which hosts a large Arab and Muslim population, earlier this year during election primaries.

Political analysts have warned that the foreign policy issue could prove problematic come November.

However, the party is heavily split on the issue, which in part prompted Obama's warning.

Would one speaker have been that hard?

[Vrede too]

Here we go again, Putin promoting TRE45QN:

FBI investigating Russian election interference and raiding homes in major crackdown
The US is currently investigating Americans who have worked with Russian state TV and raided the homes of two prominent commentators.

... The FBI raided the homes of two prominent figures in Russian state media - Scott Ritter and Dimitri K. Simes. Ritter is a former United Nations weapons inspector and vocal critic of American policy, and Simes is a former adviser to Donald Trump.

According to officials briefed on the inquiry speaking to the New York Times, more searches are expected soon. There have not been any charges announced against Ritter and Simes, but that's a possibility for the future, the officials said.

This comes after Joe Biden's administration found Russian state news organizations are actively working with intelligence agencies to influence elections around the world, including the US.

The officials and public statements revealed that the Kremlin's propaganda machine has for a third time disseminated posts online favoring Trump, including fake videos slamming Biden and Kamala Harris....

[O Really]

Random wondering: I know the "stolen election" is all bullshit, but just to play along, if I recall repugs ran the elections in all the "contested" states. So somehow Dems managed to thwart all the efforts, safeguards, and precautions that the supposedly honest repugs had to assure a fair and accurate election and count. Ignoring for the time being that no evidence was ever turned up to support the "steal," as far as I know, repugs have continued to be in charge of elections in all those states. In the past three years, they've tweaked various laws and rules to make voting more difficult, but nobody has said "we found a flaw and fixed it."

Now comes Trump, again, along with the cult warning of new attempts by the Dems and potential election irregularities. To review - repugs were running the elections before, repugs found no discrepancies, repugs continue to run the elections in their own best interests and still somehow Dems are supposed to be able to conduct massive cheating. Damn, the Dems are really smart - maybe they should be in charge for a while.

[GoCubsGo]

Understatement.

[GoCubsGo]

I'm actually confused as to why Harris's people want open microphones. I get they think he'll be shitshow, but why give him an opportunity to walk all over your message when you can fact check him uninterrupted in real time and simultaneously easily bait him into stepping on his own dick during his uninterrupted two minutes.

[O Really]

I would have kept them muted.

[Vrede too]

I'm actually confused as to why Harris's people want open microphones. I get they think he'll be shitshow, but why give him an opportunity to walk all over your message when you can fact check him uninterrupted in real time and simultaneously easily bait him into stepping on his own dick during his uninterrupted two minutes.

I agree.

Why Harris wants to unmute Trump

As you say However:

... Trump’s camp pushed back, although the ex-president on Monday suggested he’d be quite happy to lose the mute button. And on Tuesday afternoon, Trump said on social media that he’d reached an agreement with the Democrats to implement the original rules of the debate agreed upon with Biden before he pulled out of the race. That means silenced mics and no studio audience, according to a personal familiar with the matter. CNN has contacted the Harris campaign for comment....

If DonOLD is telling the truth - which is always iffy - good. Leaving aside who is advantaged, I prefer no interrupting and no risk of a biased audience.

[GoCubsGo]

If DonOLD is telling the truth - which is always iffy - good. Leaving aside who is advantaged, I prefer no interrupting and no risk of a biased audience.

I liked the format better too. Biden's performance, not so much.

If Kamala somehow doesn't perform, there's no hiding it.

She's gonna perform though, but an unmuted trump may dampen her performance.

[GoCubsGo]

GoVredeGo!

The nonpartisan group Cook Political Group shifted North Carolina’s presidential race to “toss up” from “lean Republican” as Vice President Harris narrows the gap with former President Trump.

“Despite the optimism and hype, [President] Biden was never able to keep this race [in North Carolina] close. By the time he dropped out of the race in late July, the president was trailing Trump by almost seven points,” Cook Editor-In-Chief Amy Walter wrote in an analysis Tuesday. “Today, however, the Tar Heel State looks more competitive than ever.”

Pointing to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, Walter wrote Harris and Trump are in a dead heat at about 45.7 percent support each.

[GoCubsGo]

If DonOLD is telling the truth - which is always iffy - good. Leaving aside who is advantaged, I prefer no interrupting and no risk of a biased audience.

Then again, maybe the Harris camp is pulling the con by saying they want open mics.

Hell if I know.

[Vrede too]

Idk if it will last. We're getting flooded with negative ads about KH - border "czar" even though she wasn't, all the murderers she supposedly released from jail (no mention of upstanding citizens), the economy (which is actually doing great) - some from TRE45QN, some from "independent" PACs.

If DonOLD is telling the truth - which is always iffy - good. Leaving aside who is advantaged, I prefer no interrupting and no risk of a biased audience.

Then again, maybe the Harris camp is pulling the con by saying they want open mics.

Hell if I know.

That occurred to me, too. Seems convoluted and why would Dolt .45 want to change what already worked for him, anyhow? With or without interruptions he can always spew more lies than can be intelligently debunked.

[GoCubsGo]

That occurred to me, too. Seems convoluted and why would Dolt .45 want to change what already worked for him, anyhow? With or without interruptions he can always spew more lies than can be intelligently debunked.

Biden's team originally wanted those rules for a reason.....he's going to spew more lies that can be intelligently debunked regardless.