2024 Elections

[GoCubsGo]

I've generally defended polling as a usable tool, and understand that if they tell you there's a margin of error of 2 and either candidate wins by 1, then the poll wasn't "wrong". I also understand that the polls results will vary based on how the pollsters pick their poll pool and how their questions are framed. But here's a few things to consider for this election:

There have been a lot of new registrations since Kamala started running. Pollsters don't have access to any of those. In fact, anybody who turned 18 and registered during most of this year won't be on the lists available to pollsters. Pollsters like to count "registered voters" or "likely voters." The likely voters are thought to be a better pool. But they pick who's likely by who's voted in the past. That won't catch any newly registered nor any previous non-voters who are now mad about abortion or whatever. Most of the younger new registrations and the formerly non-voters are thought to be Kamala people.

So in theory, Kamala's people should be being undercounted in the current polls, unlike previous years when they undercounted Trump's. And the Dems have a much better ground game this year for a change. And still waay more money.

And yet, polls give half the voters in swing states to Trump.

Yeah, but...

[Vrede too]

Yeah, but...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZq9ovvXUA4 ... me=900x900

It's even worse than the graphic suggests:

Trump has long blasted China's trade practices. His 'God Bless the USA' Bibles were printed there

... The estimated value of the three separate shipments was $342,000, or less than $3 per Bible, according to databases that track exports and imports. The minimum price for the Trump-backed Bible is $59.99, putting the potential sales revenue at about $7 million.

$3 to $60 is obscene.

The sellers and the Trump campaign are ducking questions.

... The web of enterprises has stoked conflict of interest concerns. Selling products at prices that exceed their value may be considered a campaign contribution, said Claire Finkelstein, founder of the nonpartisan Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law and a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

“You have to assume that everything that the individual does is being done as a candidate and so that any money that flows through to him benefits him as a candidate,” Finkelstein said. “Suppose Vladimir Putin were to buy a Trump watch. Is that a campaign finance violation? I would think so.”

... Religious scholars have denounced the merger of Scripture and government documents as a “toxic mix” that would fuel Christian nationalism, a movement that fuses American and Christian values, symbols and identity and seeks to privilege Christianity in public life. Other critics have called the Trump Bible blasphemous.

Tim Wildsmith, a Baptist minister who reviews Bibles on his YouTube channel, said he quickly noticed the signs of a cheaply made book when his “God Bless the USA” Bible arrived in the mail.

It had a faux leather cover, and words were jammed together on the pages, making it hard to read. He also found sticky pages that ripped when pulled apart, and there was no copyright page or information about who printed the Bible, or where.

“I was shocked by how poor the quality of it was,” Wildsmith said. “It says to me that it’s more about the love of money than it is the love of our country.”

How Christian of them.

[GoCubsGo]

Yeah, but will he place tariffs in his own bibles?

[Vrede too]

Yeah, but will he place tariffs on his own bibles?

, but 100% will only raise the cost to $6. Plenty of room left for avarice.

Dems’ Senate hopes are increasingly running through a single state. And it’s not looking great.
Polls are showing Sen. Jon Tester falling behind, raising uncomfortable questions for Democrats about how to hold the Senate.

Control of the Senate increasingly appears to hinge on a single race, and it’s quickly moved in the wrong direction for Democrats: Sen. Jon Tester of Montana has fallen behind his opponent in poll after poll....

RCP Average 8/10 - 10/8
Sheehy (R) 51.2
Tester (D) 44.2
spread Sheehy +7.0

Sorry. Maybe there will be a surprise in another state.

[Vrede too]

Shower thought.

No way is there going to be another debate.

Trump has put his eggs in on the batshit crazy conspiracy basket and Kamala would decimate him easily with simple facts on a national debate stage.

He'd never recover.

Great minds . . .
Mary Trump Says Uncle Suffered 'Narcissistic Injury' In Debate And Won't Recover
Donald Trump's niece also highlighted "one of the most damning and dangerous things" about the former president.

The case can be made that DonOLD's post-debate nuttiness has been the inability to recover.



Article
Take that, you fascists, and someone please explain to Dolt .45 that "fascist" and "communist", along with"tyranny" and "anarchy", are contradictions and his whining just sounds stupid.

[GoCubsGo]

I may be over invested in our political situation, but there's a lot of people who are under invested.

Bill Clinton pops into McDonald’s on campaign trail - but his server thinks he’s Joe Biden

[O Really]

Well when you're a Black woman working at McDonald's, probably all old gray-haired white guys pretty much look alike.

[Vrede too]

Well when you're a Black woman working at McDonald's, probably all old gray-haired white guys pretty much look alike.

It's both funny and sad that she was even more excited that it was Bill.

Mary Trump Flags A ‘Horrifying Irony’ About Her Uncle’s Racism
Donald Trump's niece also sounded the alarm over the former president's new "devil's bargain."

Mary Trump explained in her latest newsletter how the “hateful rhetoric” of her uncle, the former president and current GOP nominee Donald Trump, has “become more extreme, more violent, and in some cases more detached from reality.”

The clinical psychologist, a longtime critic of her relative, cited some of his most recent outrageous claims, from his lies about Haitian immigrants eating people’s pets in Ohio and immigrants filling the country with “bad genes.”

And she noted, “It is a horrifying irony that Donald, one of the most damaged, weak, and inferior people who has ever walked the planet, promotes the inferiority of non-whites.”

“But he’s, after all, merely a symptom of a disease that, thanks to the opportunism of the Republican Party and the fascists, white supremacist, and Christian nationalists they represent, continues to metastasize,” she added.

Read the full newsletter here, Donald Went Full-On Fascist.

In a separate missive, Mary Trump described Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of social media platform X, as her uncle’s “new owner” with his financial and vocal support of the GOP candidate’s campaign, calling it a “devil’s bargain.”

“Separately, Donald and Musk are both dangerous enough. Together, they are in an even stronger position to end American democracy and align this country with the world’s most destructive foreign actors,” she warned.

Yep

[Vrede too]

This ad is playing a lot here. I had no idea how much lying there is in it.

CNN Fact-Checker Says This Donald Trump Ad May Be ‘Most Deceptive’ Of 2024 Election
Daniel Dale flagged two "horrifically edited quotes plus a made-up statistic" from the former president's short campaign spot.

[Jasmine]

This is just a personal gripe I have about politicians: I absolutely hate it when they purposely avoid answering direct questions.

I wish these candidates were forced to wear an electric collar. Every time they don’t answer a question or try to change the subject, they get a hard electric jolt.

[Vrede too]

This is just a personal gripe I have about politicians: I absolutely hate it when they purposely avoid answering direct questions.

I wish these candidates were forced to wear an electric collar. Every time they don’t answer a question or try to change the subject, they get a hard electric jolt.

Agreed

[Vrede too]

Dems’ Senate hopes are increasingly running through a single state. And it’s not looking great.
Polls are showing Sen. Jon Tester falling behind, raising uncomfortable questions for Democrats about how to hold the Senate.

Control of the Senate increasingly appears to hinge on a single race, and it’s quickly moved in the wrong direction for Democrats: Sen. Jon Tester of Montana has fallen behind his opponent in poll after poll....

RCP Average 8/10 - 10/8
Sheehy (R) 51.2
Tester (D) 44.2
spread Sheehy +7.0

Sorry. Maybe there will be a surprise in another state.

Montana GOP Senate Candidate Says Dept. Of Education Is Meant To 'Indoctrinate And Enslave'

Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy of Montana wants to abolish the U.S. Department of Education, claiming it is meant to “indoctrinate and enslave” students across the country, according to The Daily Montanan.

Paranoia much?

“We have a Department of Education, which I don’t think we need anymore,” Sheehy said at a campaign stop in Billings earlier this year, according to audio clips obtained by the outlet. “It should go away. That’ll save us $30 billion right there.”

Translation: Let's cut funding for American kids by $30 billion.

“We formed that department so little Black girls could go to school down South and we could have integrated schooling. We don’t need that anymore,” he added.

The Education Department was elevated to a Cabinet-level agency in 1979 by then-President Jimmy Carter, more than 20 years after school segregation was decreed unlawful and integration efforts began. Today, roughly 90% of students in kindergarten through 12th grade attend public school in Montana, totaling about 150,000 children. The agency enforces federal statutes prohibiting discrimination and ensures equal access to education for every individual.

The United States Department of Education was separated out from HEW in 1980. In turn, HEW was created to replace the Federal Security Agency (FSA) and its education programs in 1953. The FSA was created in 1939, well before many cared about "little Black girls". The feds have been involved in US education at least that long. Opps.

Wiki:

... Sheehy attended a private high school in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, graduating in 2004.

Perhaps public school would have taught him US history and how to do basic research. He apparently did not graduate from any college. Figures.

Back to the article:

... Sheehy, a wealthy GOP businessman seeking to oust Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in November, has used similar language to criticize women who fear the loss of their reproductive rights.

“They’ve been indoctrinated for too long,” Sheehy said at another campaign stop last year. “Abortion is their No. 1 concern. It’s all they want to talk about. They are single-issue voters.”

Misogynist, too. Figures.

... (Sen) Tester slammed his GOP opponent and vowed to protect the public school system on Tuesday.

“Tim Sheehy doesn’t give a damn about our public schools. I’m a proud product of Montana’s public schools and a former public school teacher—and I’ll fight to protect them with all I’ve got,” he said on X, formerly Twitter.

Sorry again. Maybe Sheehy will say more stupid and hateful stuff before the election.

[Vrede too]

Guess who I'm voting for:


Critics issue warning about Jefferson Griffin as he runs for North Carolina's Supreme Court

Griffin has a nasty attack on Riggs ad out, but I couldn't find it to share.

5-2 RepuQ on our SC is already bad enough.

[Vrede too]

Trump’s New Campaign Trick Called “As Dirty as It Gets”

Donald Trump is “utilizing a political action committee called ‘Build America’s Future,’ which has received over $100 million from Elon Musk,” reports Ben Meiselas of MeidasTouch, asserting that the Musk-backed PAC “created a shell group called ‘Progress 2028’ to be like the liberal version of Project 2025.”

What’s the news there? Progress 2028 isn’t a liberal version of anything — it’s a fictional operation claiming to support Kamala Harris while distorting her positions, portraying her as a fringe candidate pushing a “radical” agenda....

It’s a trick that has Musk and Trump virtually dressing up in Kamala Harris drag, and practicing a misleading ventriloquism.

The public information site OpenSecrets, which tracks political spending, reports “Building America’s Future registered to use Progress 2028 as a fictitious name on Sept. 23 and the website was created three days later.” The first item on that website reads: Empowering Undocumented Immigrants, Building Our Future....

“Let’s get ready,” says one mailer, “for Kamala Harris’s bold progressive agenda,” which it purports to support. One promise made is that Harris will “remove barriers for undocumented immigrants” — a position Harris does not hold and which is anathema to many swing voters.

Meiselas says in simple terms that the artificial pro-Harris content is meant “to scare away voters.”...

The fake agenda looks pretty good to me, but I can see where it would distress moderates:
https://progress2028.com/
I'm not sure why anyone would believe that such a bare skeleton of a website is part of an actual campaign. If they're that gullible they're gonna swallow any swill that they're fed.

[GoCubsGo]

LOL

It's the talking point they want. RWNJ's won't actually investigate the site, it's mere existence enough.

[Vrede too]

LOL

It's the talking point they want. RWNJ's won't actually investigate the site, it's mere existence enough.

I wonder how much Kamala's GOP endorsers help in the face of so much being flung by the DonOLD team.

Republican President’s Daughter Says She’s Backing Harris Despite Policy Disagreements



Gerald Ford’s daughter announced Monday she was endorsing Kamala Harris for president despite them disagreeing on “some policy matters.”

Susan Ford Bales, 67, is a registered Republican like her father was, but said she’d support Harris because she has the same “principles” that guided her dad during his ascension from VP to president in 1974 after the resignation of Richard Nixon.

“She recognizes the goodness and the greatness in our country,” Ford Bales said in her endorsement. “I know she will defend the rule of law and our Constitution. And I know she will work to bring all Americans together to move us beyond partisanship.”

Aside from notching the public backing from yet another lifelong Republican, the endorsement of Ford Bales is particularly valuable to Harris’ campaign because of the Ford family’s prominence in Michigan, a key swing state that remains neck-and-neck in polling. While Gerald Ford has no familial relation to the Ford Motor Company, which was founded in Michigan and still employs tens of thousands in the state, he is the only president to hail from the Great Lakes State.

Ford Bales said in her statement that America is in a “turbulent time,” as it was amid the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s. She said the country is in need of a “compassionate and honorable leader,” which she suggested is something Donald Trump, 78, is not.

“America cannot regress back to a divisive paradigm of loathing toward one another and disdain for our Constitution,” she said. “We witnessed on Jan. 6 the horrors of what that looks like, and we can never allow a repeat of that tragedy.”

Ford Bales never mentioned Trump by name in her statement, but made clear she was disgusted with his actions that contributed to the riot at the U.S. Capitol. She said the “forces that incited” that dark day should “never be in a position to ever do it again.”...

[Vrede too]

The scammer gets scammed:

Trump ground game faces new fraud claims as video shows door-knock hack
Exclusive: Clip from canvasser for Musk’s America Pac reveals apparent ease in which GPS location can be spoofed

Donald Trump’s ground game in Arizona and Nevada may be undermined by canvassers working for America Pac using GPS spoofing to pretend they have knocked on doors when they haven’t, according to multiple people familiar with the practice and a leaked how-to-fake-location video.

The ramifications for Trump may be far reaching, given America Pac has taken on the bulk of the Trump campaign’s ground game in the battleground states, and the election increasingly appears set to be decided by turnout.

A bootleg how-to-spoof video, made by an America Pac canvasser in Nevada and obtained by the Guardian, shows the apparent ease with which locations can be changed to fake door knocks, calling into question how many Trump voters have actually been reached by the field operation....

[Vrede too]

A scammer and rotten businessperson like DonOLD:

Scrutiny of Republican Tim Sheehy’s business grows amid US Senate race
Bridger Aerospace secured $160m in bond from Gallatin county to hire new workers, but spent $134m on debt



Stolen valor, too:

... Questions around Bridger come as Sheehy’s service record also has come under scrutiny. The Trump-backed candidate has claimed he was shot in the arm during a firefight in Afghanistan.

But a Montana park ranger has claimed that the gunshot wound was self-inflicted in Glacier national park in 2015. Nor do Sheehy’s fellow soldiers recall him mentioning a gunshot wound or seeing a wound at the time during his service in central Asia....

Racist, of course:

Sheehy has also come under attack for allegedly characterizing Crow Native Americans as “drunk Indians”....

I hope Montana voters are paying attention. This race could decide whether the US Senate is Dem or GQP. No updated polling. RCP still says Sheehy (R) +7.0.

[Vrede too]

Trump Gets Surprising News on His Performance From a Shocking Poll

Results from a “shock” poll shared by one of Donald Trump’s surrogates started trending on X Monday, telling 1.4 million people that the Republican presidential nominee was gaining ground on Vice President Kamala Harris in New Mexico.

But none of it appears to be real.

MAGA ally Richard Grennell, who served as the acting director of national intelligence during Trump’s administration, posted the sourceless numbers to his X account, claiming that Harris only had a three-point lead on the former president in the battleground state. But that alleged narrow lead made light of other recent surveys, including one published in the Albuquerque Journal on Monday, which showed Harris with a nine-point lead, three times more than Grennell suggested.

“Trump surrogates are literally fabricating polls at this point to make their supporters think a victory is inevitable,” wrote Democratic strategist and pollster Matt McDermott in response to Grennell’s post. “No poll shows this in New Mexico.”

Does this make victory more likely? Otoh, it makes outrage, resistance and even violence more likely if ex-PINO loses.

Doubts were similarly cast over Harris’s odds on the betting platform Polymarket, which saw Trump suddenly surge ahead of the Democratic presidential nominee with 63 percent of the projected vote compared to Harris’s 36 percent.

One bettor appeared to be behind the switch-up. “Fredi9999” holds more than $20 million in pro-Trump bets on the site, and users have suggested that the same person could be behind several accounts with some of the site’s largest bets on the Republican presidential nominee, reported CCN.

All they do is lie and cheat, constantly.

[Vrede too]

Barack Obama Trolls Trump With A 'Little' Reminder That's Bound To Get Under His Skin
The former president mocked his successor as he stumped for Vice President Kamala Harris.

... “If your grandpa was acting like this, you’d be worried,” Obama said. “This is somebody who wants unchecked power. We do not need to see what an older, loonier Donald Trump looks like with no guardrails. America’s ready to turn the page.”...