2020 Elections

[O Really]

Prediction - based on absolutely nothing:
Biden will screw up significantly; Sanders' Grumpy ol' Curmudgeon act will wear thin as he gets more publicity like this https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... &ocid=iehp and starts to get hit over the head with "socialist-socialist-socialist"; Trump will re-start his "Pocohontas" act, but Warren gets past the First Nations issues and gets the nomination.

[Vrede too]

Prediction - based on absolutely nothing:
Biden will screw up significantly; Sanders' Grumpy ol' Curmudgeon act will wear thin as he gets more publicity like this https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... &ocid=iehp and starts to get hit over the head with "socialist-socialist-socialist"; Trump will re-start his "Pocohontas" act, but Warren gets past the First Nations issues and gets the nomination.

If I was forced to wager I would agree with you on the result, though not entirely the mechanism.

Biden screw ups are certain , but I think Dems will tire of regular, boring, moderate Joe, too.
If being either a curmudgeon or a socialist was going to hurt Bernie! among Dems, I think it already would have.
Warren benefits from being 8 years younger than Bernie! and 7 years younger than Joe, though it's weird putting a 70 year-old in the Spring chicken category.
Warren benefits from just being the better candidate - uber smart, energetic and really delivering the reasoned and detailed policy proposals.

Wild card: At their age the odds are pretty good that at least one will have a significant, disqualifying health event.

Idle speculation: What if Joe's son hadn't died and he'd run in 2016?
Hillary loses in Nov, regardless?
Joe beats tRump?
They split the moderates and Bernie! get the nomination? If so, wins or loses in Nov?

Based on absolutely nothing : I'll go with what's probably just wishful thinking, Bernie! winning in Nov 2016.

Trump's Approval Drops in Tossup States in Poll: Campaign Update

I don't know that I would bet on it, yet, but I'm leaning towards Anthony Scaramucci being correct. The lifelong cowardly Chickenhawk in Chief will drop out and run away with his idiot donors’ money rather than display the balls to face even the possibility of being defeated at the polls.

[O Really]

Bernie! appealed to a significant but minority group of Dem voters. His supporters are who they are, and many count "socialist" as a compliment, not a criticism. They may also find his "Network" act to be inspiring. But Republicans are masters at trash talking and can turn anything into a negative. "Socialist" would make an easy cudgel for the broader electorate.

I think if he'd jumped in hard and early, Biden would have won the nomination and the election. However, VP's don't have a great track record at winning Presidential races, so it might have been Hillary anyway. Wouldn't have been Bernie!

[Vrede too]

Interesting, Biden getting the nomination in 2016 would have been last on my list, though I agree that he would have easily beaten 45SHOLE if he did . . . barring Goofy Biden rising to the surface . I think he always polled poorly vs. Hillary among Dems, and I wondered if that wasn't the main reason he didn't run. However, maybe those polls were all well later than "jumped in hard and early".

[Vrede too]

Biden, Sanders Defeat Trump in Emerson Poll: Campaign Update

Joe Biden isn’t the only Democrat who could beat Donald Trump in 2020. An Emerson national poll released Tuesday showed Bernie Sanders winning a head-to-head matchup, too. Biden leads Trump 54% to 46%, while Sanders is ahead 52% to 48%. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris both tied against the president....

In the Democratic primary contest, Emerson found Biden leading 31%, followed by Sanders with 24%, Warren with 15% and Harris with 10%. No other candidate has more than 4%.

Pete Buttigieg, whose standing has eroded over the summer, was in sixth place among Democrats at 3%, behind Andrew Yang, who had 4%....

A Monmouth University poll on Monday showed a virtual three-way tie among Sanders, Warren and Biden....

:confusion-scratchheadblue: Someone's polling is way off.

[O Really]

Interesting, Biden getting the nomination in 2016 would have been last on my list, though I agree that he would have easily beaten 45SHOLE if he did . . . barring Goofy Biden rising to the surface . I think he always polled poorly vs. Hillary among Dems, and I wondered if that wasn't the main reason he didn't run. However, maybe those polls were all well later than "jumped in hard and early".

It's hard to say, given the variables. Hillary cruised as a lot of people just thought it was "her turn" after sitting out for 8 Obama years, and without any strong opposition early on, stacked up primaries. But Biden is a strong and widely favorable candidate only in the context of having a Trump president*.

It's entirely possible that he might not have been accepted so well, and maybe Hillary would have won anyway. If you didn't expect to get Trump, you might have been more casual in your choices. Nobody expected to run against Trump (at first) and nobody expected even a weak and flawed candidate to lose against a Trump. So who knows. But we got what we got and probably deserve it.

[Vrede too]

... But we got what we got and probably deserve it.

I have always said that, but with massive voter suppression, dark money and Russian meddling I'm not so sure. We suck, but maybe not Trumpsuck.

[O Really]

... But we got what we got and probably deserve it.

I have always said that, but with massive voter suppression, dark money and Russian meddling I'm not so sure. We suck, but maybe not Trumpsuck.

So who elected those who suppressed the vote and took dark money? Wasn't me.

[Vrede too]

... But we got what we got and probably deserve it.

I have always said that, but with massive voter suppression, dark money and Russian meddling I'm not so sure. We suck, but maybe not Trumpsuck.

So who elected those who suppressed the vote and took dark money? Wasn't me.

Those voters got what they wanted, and didn't deserve to.

[Vrede too]

No More Democrats Qualify for Presidential Debate in New Poll

The next debates for the Democratic presidential nomination may be limited to 10 candidates, with half the pack apparently failing to achieve the qualifying milestones, according to the latest sanctioned polls released Wednesday.

A Quinnipiac University survey found that former Vice President Joe Biden leads the pack with 32% support among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. Biden is followed by Senators Elizabeth Warren at 19%, Bernie Sanders at 15%, and Kamala Harris at 7%. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg got 5% and entrepreneur Andrew Yang received 3%, but no other candidate exceeded 1%....

It represented one of the final chances for candidates to make the cut by Wednesday’s deadline: qualifying candidates at least need 130,000 donors and to register at least 2% support in four qualifying polls.

... If one more candidate hits the threshold, the event will be broadened....

I would rather see a 5 and a 6 pol debate, but it will be good to see all of the leaders squaring off at the same time.

[Vrede too]

American writers should have teed off on Trump from the start like this guy in the Guardian about Johnson...

"I believe it was I who wrote in June 2017 in this very paper: “The secret Tory steering committee has always intended Boris Johnson to be leader of the party and Theresa May has only been put in place as a kind of palate cleanser, a nasty-tasting mouthwash that you swill around your gums before being forced to eat actual human shit.”

Not bad; that guy has a future and perhaps a following. Too bad Walter Cronkite isn't around anymore; or even Hunter Thompson for that matter.

More than one million people sign petition to stop Boris Johnson suspending Parliament

A petition calling on Boris Johnson to stop plans to suspend Parliament in September has racked up over a million signatures.

The petition on Parliament's website reached the figure on the same day that it was set up, having already amassed the 100,000 figure required for it to be debated in Parliament.

The petition, which was created by Mark Johnston on Parliament's website, states that Parliament should not be prorogued unless there is another extension of the Brexit deadline or the idea of leaving the European Union is scrapped altogether....

Now 1,357,778 signatures vs. the Brexidiots.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157
Johnson's scheme demonstrates his desperate weakness, not strength.

[Vrede too]

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand ends once-promising presidential bid

Biggest name to exit so far, there will be more. I have a generally positive impression, but don't know her well. She'll likely be an important ally of the new Dem POTUS in the majority Dem Senate.

[billy.pilgrim]

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand ends once-promising presidential bid

Biggest name to exit so far, there will be more. I have a generally positive impression, but don't know her well. She'll likely be an important ally of the new Dem POTUS in the majority Dem Senate.

Yeah, I remember her. She's the asshole who believes that men should quit their jobs if they are accused of anything.

[Vrede too]

Yeah, I remember her. She's the asshole who believes that men should quit their jobs if they are accused of anything.

I forgot about that. Unlike several other Dems:

'I do not have any regrets': Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand defends call for Al Franken's resignation

[billy.pilgrim]

Yeah, I remember her. She's the asshole who believes that men should quit their jobs if they are accused of anything.

I forgot about that. Unlike several other Dems:

'I do not have any regrets': Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand defends call for Al Franken's resignation

I do not have any regrets for convicting someone before I hear the evidence

[Vrede too]

I do not have any regrets for convicting someone before I hear the evidence

Trump news – live: President rages over disastrous trade war after slumping to double-digit poll deficits against all four major 2020 rivals

... A new Quinnipiac University poll has meanwhile found Mr Trump lagging behind the leading Democratic 2020 contenders Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris by 16 percent, 14 per cent, 12 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.

Wow. C'mon, Dems, now support the best, whoever you think that is.

That's our CiC - Crybaby in Chief.

Hilarious that he's losing to:

An old Obama team member;
An old socialist;
An old progressive woman;
A Black woman.

His **ahem** hands just shrunk another inch.

[Vrede too]

Boris Johnson: the clown is crowned as the country burns in hell

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw

Well, here we are then. Someone who could easily be rejected as a Guess Who character for looking too ridiculous is now to lead the country. A man whose DNA profile is the exact same as a Bernard Manning joke. A man who mentioned the 20 hustings he had taken part in, approximately 30 seconds after Conservative party chairman Brandon Lewis talked of the 16 hustings held.

With 8,000 members of the Johnson family watching on – and Jeremy Hunt, looking for all the world like a sub who’s never gonna get off the bench and knows it – Boris Johnson was announced as the new leader of the Conservative party, and, in short order, the new prime minister. Elected by a staggering 0.2% of the nation, we can’t say it isn’t the will of the people.

It’s quite extraordinary, isn’t it, when the new leader of the country opens his inaugural speech with: “There may be people here who wonder quite what they have done!” – having to address the fact that many people in the room are coming to terms with the fact they’ve got shit on their shoe.

Clown doing what clowns do:

Boris Johnson launches bid for general election after humiliating defeat over no-deal Brexit

Awww.

[O Really]

"Tory former minister Sam Gyimah, who rebelled against the Government tonight, said: “It’s never pleasant to vote against your party.

“We were all individually contacted before the vote by the whips and told we’d have the whip removed if we voted against the motion.

“It’s a sad moment. I’ve enjoyed being a Conservative Member of Parliament but voting to stop a no-deal was the right thing to do.”


Yo! So-called "Republicans" - this is how it's done. Take a lesson from the Tories.
Can you even imagine a Republican who has not already resigned saying he voted "the right thing to do."? Nope, me either.

[GoCubsGo]

My ignorance on British election terminology and procedures is embarrisng.

[O Really]

My ignorance on British election terminology and procedures is embarrisng.

What - this sentence isn't perfectly clear?
"...contacted before the vote by the whips and told we’d have the whip removed if we voted against the motion..."