How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

A place to find quick links to facts that support reality. Good for ending debates quickly, especially repeated debates.

Not intended as a place for discussion.
User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:41 pm
"Martin Bazant and John Bush, both MIT professors in applied mathematics, developed a formula to estimate how long it would take for a person to hit dangerous levels of exposure from one infected person entering a room."

Yeah, well, it may be, but I'll wait until the real infectious disease people have reviewed it before giving up my distance.
I suspect they'll listen to the math and physics. We'll see.
Fully vaccinated people can unmask outdoors in some cases: U.S. CDC

Fully vaccinated people can safely engage in outdoor activities like walking and hiking without wearing masks but should continue to use face-coverings in public spaces where they are required, U.S. health regulators said on Tuesday....

The agency said fully-vaccinated Americans can safely dine outdoors with friends from multiple households at restaurants and attend small outdoor gatherings with a mixture of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

CDC continues to recommend masking for crowded outdoor events such as parades and sporting events and indoor visits to the hair salon, shopping malls, movie theaters and houses of worship....

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 21720
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by O Really »

Vrede too wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:54 pm
O Really wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:41 pm
"Martin Bazant and John Bush, both MIT professors in applied mathematics, developed a formula to estimate how long it would take for a person to hit dangerous levels of exposure from one infected person entering a room."

Yeah, well, it may be, but I'll wait until the real infectious disease people have reviewed it before giving up my distance.
I suspect they'll listen to the math and physics. We'll see.
Listen to, but not necessarily buy 100%. If you recall, the physicists/chemists showed the virus could "under some circumstances" live for several days on surfaces, but apparently nobody ever actually caught covid from the gas pump.

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

Best way to avoid getting Covid:

GET VACCINATED AS SOON AS YOU CAN

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

Ulysses wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 1:28 pm
Best way to avoid getting Covid:

GET VACCINATED AS SOON AS YOU CAN
We're all VACCINATED except maybe for Whack9 and I'll bet he'll get on it AS SOON AS HE CAN.

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

Vrede too wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:51 pm
... I did shun the big box pharmacies on principle ...
CVS, Walgreens have wasted more vaccine doses than most states combined

:wtf: :x

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:11 pm
Vrede too wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:54 pm
O Really wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:41 pm
"Martin Bazant and John Bush, both MIT professors in applied mathematics, developed a formula to estimate how long it would take for a person to hit dangerous levels of exposure from one infected person entering a room."

Yeah, well, it may be, but I'll wait until the real infectious disease people have reviewed it before giving up my distance.
I suspect they'll listen to the math and physics. We'll see.
Listen to, but not necessarily buy 100%. If you recall, the physicists/chemists showed the virus could "under some circumstances" live for several days on surfaces, but apparently nobody ever actually caught covid from the gas pump.
CDC acknowledges "repeatedly documented" threat of airborne transmission of COVID-19

The CDC acknowledged Friday that airborne spread of COVID-19 among people more than 6 feet apart "has been repeatedly documented."

Why it matters: This is "a change from the agency’s previous position that most infections were acquired through 'close contact, not airborne transmission,'" the N.Y. Times reports.

The new guidance says airborne transmission is more common when people are close, but:

"These transmission events have involved the presence of an infectious person exhaling virus indoors for an extended time (more than 15 minutes and in some cases hours) leading to virus concentrations in the air space sufficient to transmit infections to people more than 6 feet away, and in some cases to people who have passed through that space soon after the infectious person left."

The bottom line: Aerosol expert Linsey Marr "pointed out that one updated page on the C.D.C. website, entitled 'How Covid-19 Spreads,' says that inhaling the virus when people are far apart is 'uncommon,'" the Times noted.

* "The statement is 'misleading and potentially harmful,' Dr. Marr said."
The CDC has not changed its guidance on indoor social distancing yet, but this is a step in that direction.

User avatar
O Really
Admiral
Posts: 21720
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:37 pm

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by O Really »

Is it just me, or are the findings of that study pretty much universally misinterpreted? As I read it, being 6 feet away may not be better than 60 feet, because if the aerosols start floating, they'll go throughout the room. BUT - 6 feet is still better than anything closer, because you're still way more likely to get covid from an infected person breathing on you than from the aerosols across the room. I don't see how this changes anything other than giving more reason to avoid indoor crowds, which has always been true.

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

O Really wrote:
Sat May 08, 2021 9:36 pm
Is it just me, or are the findings of that study pretty much universally misinterpreted? As I read it, being 6 feet away may not be better than 60 feet, because if the aerosols start floating, they'll go throughout the room. BUT - 6 feet is still better than anything closer, because you're still way more likely to get covid from an infected person breathing on you than from the aerosols across the room. I don't see how this changes anything other than giving more reason to avoid indoor crowds, which has always been true.
The MIT folks are saying that 6 feet indoors is NOT "still better than anything closer," at least not to a consequential degree. If they're correct, it's more reason to be vaccinated, to enforce indoor masking, to use a better mask and to avoid indoor crowds, but not reason to practice social distancing once one has chosen to accept being indoors with a certain number of people.

In hospitals “droplet precautions” mean masks and maybe further PPE depending on the closeness of contact. “Airborne aerosol precautions (CV-19)” mean PPE, negative air pressure rooms with a donning/doffing vestibule, and hoods with a powered HEPA air filter. There is no such thing as a 6 foot distinction. Everything is based on whether one is in the infected patient’s room or not. These patients are not masked unless they're being transported elsewhere in the hospital.

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

As I understand it, the primary effective use of typical surgical masks is to reduce the exhalation of potentially virus laden droplets by persons with active covid infections, both symptomatic and asymptomatic. Wearing a surgical type mask is significantly less effective at blocking covid transmission. If the infected person and the uninfected person both mask up, so much the better. It combines the 60-80 % effectiveness of an uninfected person wearing a mask with the 90-95% effectiveness of an infected person wearing a mask.

AFAIK, N95 masks are still expensive and in short supply. And to be fully effective, one must have little to no facial hair, preferable with an adhesive strip holding the mask edges to the face. PN95 masks are more available but still more expensive than surgical masks and I understand they are not as effective as true N95 masks. I bought a box of PN95 masks a few months ago, but they fit so poorly I went back to the surgical masks. Luckily I never got covid and got fully vaccinated by mid-March.

So yeah, vaccination is the best answer for stopping the spread of covid. And I am anticipating annual covid booster shots every fall for the foreseeable future.

None of this is meant to contradict anything previously stated here.

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

Vrede too wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:25 pm
... Not the perfect thread for this, but very good interactive worldwide data:

Image

COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

US is 12th worst for deaths at 299 per 1M population.
Global death toll is 3.46 million.
US death toll is 603K, approaching some estimates for our Civil War.
:cry:
The US has suffered 1,814 deaths per 1M population, 18th worst. Much of that drop from 12th is recent due to widespread vaccination.

Even when we aren't sick we're sick:
11 Health Issues Doctors Are Seeing More Of Due To The COVID-19 Pandemic

It’s no secret the stress, isolation and disruption to our routines during the coronavirus pandemic have taken a toll on our health ― and now some of those effects are showing up in doctors’ offices.

Medical providers are seeing an increase in health problems as a direct result of pandemic-era living. Temporary halts to annual doctors’ appointments also played a role....

What health conditions are doctors seeing more of now, and what can you do about them if you’re experiencing them? Here’s a brief guide:

1. Eye Issues

“I’ve definitely seen an increase in digital eye strain ...

2. Neck And Back Pain

... their workstation ― or lack thereof ― is typically the culprit,” ...

3. High Blood Pressure ...

4. Diabetes And Heart Disease ...

5. Mental Health Conditions, Such As Depression And PTSD ...

6. Cracked Teeth, Cavities And Other Dental Problems ...

7. Gynecological Issues ...

8. Hair Loss ...

9. Acne And Other Skin Issues


The diagnosis of ‘maskne,’ which is an entirely new term, has now become commonplace,” ...

10. Substance Misuse ...

11. Cancer


... delayed care and blood work ...
:problem:

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

On the bright side, today California basically opened up again, dropping nearly all covid related restrictions.

Masks still can be required of customers and employees of private businesses. And if I'm not mistaken, they are still required to ride public transit (trains, buses, subway, etc). And proof of vaccination or negative test could be required for mass gatherings of more than 5,000.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/coro ... c/2617486/

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

CDC mask decision followed stunning findings from Cape Cod beach outbreak

... But within weeks, health officials seemed to be on to something much bigger. The outbreak quickly grew to the hundreds and most of them appeared to be vaccinated.

As of Thursday, 882 people were tied to the Provincetown outbreak. Among those living in Massachusetts, 74% of them were fully immunized, yet officials said the vast majority were also reporting symptoms. Seven people were reported hospitalized....

Before Provincetown, health officials had been operating under the assumption that it was extraordinarily rare for a vaccinated person to become infected with the virus. And if they did, they probably wouldn't end up passing it on to others, such as children too young to qualify for the vaccine or people who were medically vulnerable.

The idea that vaccines halt transmission of the virus was largely behind the CDC's decision in May suggesting vaccinated people could safely go without their masks indoors and in crowds, even if others were unvaccinated....

"What has changed is the virus," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert and Biden's chief medical adviser.

When a vaccinated person gets infected with delta -- called a "breakthrough infection" -- "the level of virus in their nasopharynx is about 1,000 times higher than with the alpha variant," Fauci said in an interview Wednesday with MSNBC....
:shock:

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

Well, it was a fun month while it lasted.

California sees a sharp increase in Covid cases and a return to mask mandates
Just over a month after the Golden state dropped all its coronavirus safety restrictions, numerous parts of California are seeing a dramatic increases in Covid-19 infections that have prompted counties to reinstate masking requirements and heightened calls for reaching the unvaccinated.

In Los Angeles, county figures show that Covid-19 infections have increased twentyfold in a month. In San Francisco, they’ve almost tripled in two weeks and, overall, California’s hospitalization numbers have increased by 58%, according to New York Times data.

Despite the fact that California is one of the country’s most vaccinated states, experts blame the highly contagious Delta variant for a new surge that has disrupted businesses’ and politicians’ plans to celebrate the state’s reopening.
File - In this May 20, 2021 file photo workers and customers wear masks amid the COVID-19 pandemic inside a shoe store, in Los Angeles. Coronavirus cases have jumped 500% in Los Angeles County over the past month and health officials warned Tuesday, July 13, 2021, that the especially contagious delta variant of the disease continues to spread rapidly among California’s unvaccinated population.

“Primarily we’re seeing infections in the unvaccinated,” said George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco, citing earlier statistics from Los Angeles which found 99.6% of new cases there were in the unvaccinated. “We’re seeing the Delta variant’s extra strength.”
Because Governor Newsom is facing a recall orchestrated by the GOP, I don't expect him to call for a return to the former statewide pandemic restrictions. However various counties are stepping up to the mark instead.

These sure are strange times.

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

A lot has been posted about the Delta variant and viral loads. However something about it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Mainly it's said to be twice as transmissible as the original covid-19 strain. OK.

But then Fauci is saying the nasopharynx Delta viral load is 1,000 times higher. Huh? Wouldn't that logically make it far more transmissible than just twice? In one report I ran across, the 1,000 number was in terms of numbers of more Delta virus viruses found vs alpha. Not 1,000 fold, but 1,000 more. I don't know, haven't seen the data, and I do trust Fauci, but something in this doesn't make sense to me.

And if the 1,000 fold stat makes more people get the jab, so much the better.

Time will tell.

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

Ulysses wrote:
Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:19 am
A lot has been posted about the Delta variant and viral loads. However something about it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Mainly it's said to be twice as transmissible as the original covid-19 strain. OK.

But then Fauci is saying the nasopharynx Delta viral load is 1,000 times higher. Huh? Wouldn't that logically make it far more transmissible than just twice? In one report I ran across, the 1,000 number was in terms of numbers of more Delta virus viruses found vs alpha. Not 1,000 fold, but 1,000 more. I don't know, haven't seen the data, and I do trust Fauci, but something in this doesn't make sense to me.

And if the 1,000 fold stat makes more people get the jab, so much the better.

Time will tell.
Did you ever figure this out?


Image

Article.

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

"Ignorance is Bliss"...

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

Ulysses wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:24 pm
"Ignorance is Bliss"...
It's perfect that you're such a child when I haven't even dissed you . . . exactly as I intended. You're sooo easy!

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

Bliss!

User avatar
Vrede too
Superstar Cultmaster
Posts: 52240
Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 11:46 am
Location: Hendersonville, NC

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Vrede too »

Ulysses wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 6:17 pm
Bliss!
Ignorant!

Image

User avatar
Ulysses
Vice admiral
Posts: 10764
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:57 pm
Location: Warriors For The Win

Re: How to know and avoid Corona Virus risks

Unread post by Ulysses »

The cup of bliss runneth over.

Post Reply