2022 elections

[billy.pilgrim]

I wonder how much of an effect Republicans saying the elections are rigged had on Republican turnout? Why vote if you honestly think it doesn't matter because the elections are rigged?

Did these dummies not think about that?

I think they realize that enough of them will vote more than once in order to compensate for dem cheating.

[GoCubsGo]

I wonder how much of an effect Republicans saying the elections are rigged had on Republican turnout? Why vote if you honestly think it doesn't matter because the elections are rigged?

Did these dummies not think about that?

Guess some of the dummies may have figured it out.

[Vrede too]

Since you're in Portland.

Republican candidate gains momentum in Oregon governor's race

According to the RepuQs in the comments Portland is an Antifa-run sewer littered with homeless camps and drug needles. They're creaming their jeans over the prospect of a GQP win.

Con RCP:
Drazan (R) 35.7%, within the MoE for the averaged polls
Kotek (D) 33.3%
Johnson (I) 17.7%, Johnson is a longtime Dem running as an Ind.
Drazan +2.4%

My entirely uninformed opinion - As the election nears Johnson is likely to withdraw or her supporters are likely to abandon her hopeless campaign. Most will then vote Dem.

Yeah, Johnson has been pushing hard on her "independence" and "non-partisan" approach. Sounds good until you look further into her and then realize that she's not going to win and is draining off Dem votes. I agree with you.

I've been looking for the "Antifa-run sewer littered with homeless camps and drug needles" and haven't had much luck. There is an area around the Old Town/Chinatown where clearly homelessness is an issue, but no worse than most other cities.

I hope we're correct. Leaving aside policy, OR Gov would be a huge symbolic loss.

We were probably right, phew.

Kotek (D) 46.7%, 737,048, 44,234 ahead
Drazan (R) 43.9%, 692,814
Johnson (I) 8.7%, 137,407
Not called by CNN yet, but:
Est. vote in: 99%

So far, the Dems picked up 2 governor seats, MA & MD.
It's 24-22 Rs.
Not called
Alaska: Incumbent R will win.
Arizona: 50.3% D, 49.7% R Est. vote in: 76%. This would be a D pickup.
Nevada: 50.3% R, 46.0% Incumbent D, Est. vote in: 81%.
Oregon: D will win.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/governor

[Vrede too]

We were probably right, phew.

Kotek (D) 46.7%, 737,048, 44,234 ahead
Drazan (R) 43.9%, 692,814
Johnson (I) 8.7%, 137,407
Not called by CNN yet, but:
Est. vote in: 99%

So far, the Dems picked up 2 governor seats, MA & MD.
It's 24-22 Rs.
Not called
Alaska: Incumbent R will win.
Arizona: 50.3% D, 49.7% R Est. vote in: 76%. This would be a D pickup.
Nevada: 50.3% R, 46.0% Incumbent D, Est. vote in: 81%.
Oregon: D will win.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/governor

Idk if it was my flub or CNN's, but in Oregon it's now showing:
Est. vote in: 83%
All the above numbers are the same. So Oregon could still be lost despite the I's numbers being halved from the pre-election polls.


Montana gained a second US House seat from having just one for the entire state, thus giving my more liberal western part of the state a shot at representation. However:

RYAN K ZINKE Republican 50% 120,285
MONICA TRANEL Democrat 46% 112,271
JOHN LAMB Libertarian 4% 9,304
Precincts Reporting 99.85%

[Vrede too]

Senate: Georgia
Warnock (D) Incumbent 49.6%, 1,948,414, 48,742 ahead
Walker (R) 48.3%, 1,899,672
Oliver (L, I assume) 2.1%, 81,187

Anyone that would vote for Herschel is too far gone to convince to be sane and patriotic.
I respect Libertarian and other 3rd party voters principled stand against 2 party limitations.
However:
Nearly 4M votes cast.
Nearly 7M active registered in GA.
O Really laments the 50-60% turnout in solid blue SD. There's no excuse for roughly 57% turnout in solid purple GA.
Then, there are all of the eligible voters that never registered.
Just 15,718 more votes out of nearly 4M cast would have given Warnock the 50% +1 that he needed to win without a runoff.

How will the Libertarians break in the runoff? I suspect that partisan turnout will matter more than what the Libertarians do. Yikes, it really sucks for America (and the world) that Herschel, Herschel!!!, can affect so much.

[Vrede too]

All states Senate results
Rs lead 49-48.

Arizona Senate Election Results 2022
80% expected votes in (Est. remaining 527,715)
D still has a healthy lead over the wingnut.
Mark Kelly (D) Incumbent 51.7%, 1,059,387
Blake Masters (R) 46.1% 944,350

Nevada Senate Election Results 2022
88% expected votes in (Est. remaining 130,035)
The D is gaining, making up significant ground since I checked yesterday!
Adam Laxalt (R) 49.0%, 450,534
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Incumbent 48.0%, 441,546
In my experience late trends continue, it's just a question of how far they go.

Please, please, please. If the Ds take both seats they hold the Senate, even without Herschel. However, GA would still be important to depose Manchin from his de facto Majority Leader role. Pundits say that the Senate no longer being at stake would reduce R turnout since some are appalled by Herschel, but wanted an R Senate.

[O Really]

Some have called it for Kelly already.
Not called, but projected Cortez Masto to be winner

I think everybody and everything I voted for - or would have voted for if they'd let me vote in WA and OR - won.
Oregon had a couple of interesting measures not yet settled, including guarantee of basic healthcare and some fairly stiff firearm restrictions.

[Vrede too]

Some have called it for Kelly already. Sweet.
Not called, but projected Cortez Masto to be winner No shit? Fantastic!

I think everybody and everything I voted for - or would have voted for if they'd let me vote in WA and OR - won. Congrats.
Oregon had a couple of interesting measures not yet settled, including guarantee of basic healthcare and some fairly stiff firearm restrictions.
Saw that, I've been watching them. too.
AZ, of course, has a tight contest over Proposition 309: Increase Voter ID Requirements
Ballot Measure Results 2022

House Midterm Elections 2022
MSNBC projects 220-215 Rs, meaning the Rs could not afford 3 defections on any vote.
However, 7 seats are still unsure.
At worst 227-208 R.
At best 222-213 D.
None of us would have predicted 6 days, 6 weeks or 6 months ago that the Ds would still have a shot 3 days after election day. Red trickle.

[O Really]

It looks like a happy combination of (1) really bad, crazy Repug candidates; (2) Trump fatigue, particularly regarding the 2020 "fraud"; and apparently people who may have been unhappy about the economy or inflation but didn't necessarily automatically punch the "other guy" button. Anyway, yeah, we're all happier than we would have expected even last month.

[Vrede too]

It looks like a happy combination of (1) really bad, crazy Repug candidates; (2) Trump fatigue, particularly regarding the 2020 "fraud"; and (3) apparently people who may have been unhappy about the economy or inflation but didn't necessarily automatically punch the "other guy" button. Anyway, yeah, we're all happier than we would have expected even last month.

(4) Joltin' Joe doing a decent job and really connecting with people, in spite of false RW characterizations of him.
(5) People not as impacted by or afraid of crime and immigration as the fearmongering GQP wishes.
(6) Some understanding that Joe is not responsible for global oil prices and global inflation.
(7) Best UE since 1969.
(8) Climate, the tragically underplayed campaign issue.

[Vrede too]

It looks like a happy combination of (1) really bad, crazy Repug candidates; (2) Trump fatigue, particularly regarding the 2020 "fraud"; and apparently people who may have been unhappy about the economy or inflation but didn't necessarily automatically punch the "other guy" button. Anyway, yeah, we're all happier than we would have expected even last month.

Possible expansion on your post from MSNBC talking heads - Some or many of those voters citing the economy or inflation saw that those really bad, crazy Repug candidates are focused on wingnuttery and not solutions. So, they voted Dem BECAUSE the Dems are more likely to put the work in to fix things. Makes a lot of sense to me. Maybe the exit polls will tease out the truth.

[O Really]

I don't know if it made much difference, if any, but all along the west coast, the Repug national committee ads were awful. Instead of hitting actual issues of concern to voters, they pretty much cut and pasted old Biden/Pelosi boogy man stuff from places that voted for Trump. You're not going to get much influencing from that on people who voted for Biden and aren't afraid of Pelosi. So the effect was just to spend a bunch of money running ads for people who are going to vote for you anyway. This would have been especially worthless for Smiley in WA, as she was absolutely going to have to win over some Dems or lib-leaning unaffiliateds to have a chance at winning. Her own campaign's ads were very good, portraying this "smiley" pretty lady talking about what she wanted to do, etc. But the national committee ads run for her just had this black/white furry pic of Murray and said she "voted with Biden and Pelosi" almost 100% of the time. Well, most everybody west of the Cascades would say, "yeah, so?" Plus she didn't ever "vote with Pelosi" because she's in the Senate and Pelosi is in the House.

[Vrede too]

I don't know if it made much difference, if any, but all along the west coast, the Repug national committee ads were awful. Instead of hitting actual issues of concern to voters, they pretty much cut and pasted old Biden/Pelosi boogy man stuff from places that voted for Trump. You're not going to get much influencing from that on people who voted for Biden and aren't afraid of Pelosi. So the effect was just to spend a bunch of money running ads for people who are going to vote for you anyway. This would have been especially worthless for Smiley in WA, as she was absolutely going to have to win over some Dems or lib-leaning unaffiliateds to have a chance at winning. Her own campaign's ads were very good, portraying this "smiley" pretty lady talking about what she wanted to do, etc. But the national committee ads run for her just had this black/white furry pic of Murray and said she "voted with Biden and Pelosi" almost 100% of the time. Well, most everybody west of the Cascades would say, "yeah, so?" Plus she didn't ever "vote with Pelosi" because she's in the Senate and Pelosi is in the House.

A lot of the nasty ads here came from the Senate Leadership Fund, Mitch McConnell's PAC, further proving what a spiteful, not-very-smart asshole he is. After all, he has to work with the Ds that won, who might have retained the majority, and even with the handful of Rs that might not have wanted his ugly "help".

[O Really]

For the most part, I don't think the politicians themselves pay much attention to opposing ads unless they get to the point of legit slander, which is hard to prove in that context. Insults seem to be easily forgotten after the campaign, eh Sen Cruz with the ugly wife? Problem is, survey after survey show two things: (1) everybody hates the negative ads and; (2) negative ads are effective.

[GoCubsGo]

Do TV ads really matter anymore except to the broadcasters?

[O Really]

Do TV ads really matter anymore except to the broadcasters?

Both parties spend a lot on them, so they must think they have an effect. I can't say I've ever changed my mind over any ad, though. In Oregon, one of the Repug candidates was Alex Skarlotos, who was one of the three guys to jump the terrorist on the train in France. He's from Roseburg, middle of the district, so pretty much a home town hero sort of candidate. Well spoken, wasn't much of a Trumper, even use a pic of him getting recognized by Obama in his ads. Then the other side ran an ad with video of him on some podcast a few years ago joking with another guy about strangling a woman in sex and she dies. He defended, with a "long time ago, not very mature, very sorry..." response but I think that ad probably killed him. Any Repug would have had to be perfect to win, and he cracked.

[Vrede too]

Do TV ads really matter anymore except to the broadcasters?

They don't persuade anyone to switch sides, but they energize one's own team and convince tepid supporters of the opposition to stay home.

[GoCubsGo]

Do TV ads really matter anymore except to the broadcasters?

They don't persuade anyone to switch sides, but they energize one's own team and convince tepid supporters of the opposition to stay home.

Maybe that more than anything I guess. Usually energizes me to walk to the fridge.

[Vrede too]

They don't persuade anyone to switch sides, but they energize one's own team and convince tepid supporters of the opposition to stay home.

Maybe that more than anything I guess. Usually energizes me to walk to the fridge.

Yeah, but with an extra bounce in your step when a RepuQ has just been trashed.

Did the Steelers put Fetterman over the top, and is there some post-season award for that?

Dems supporting Trumpettes with primary ads and crossover voting ( ) was controversial at the time. I'd say that it was hugely successful and will lead to more of the same in the future.

Deep analysis:

5 myths that the 2022 midterms demolished

... Despite the howling economic headwinds, it’s entirely possible that Joe Biden could become the first Democratic president since John F. Kennedy in 1962 not only to keep control of the Senate but actually expand his majority there. Democrats held onto House seats in Rhode Island, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio that Republicans were sure they could flip. They clawed back control of state legislatures. They ran the table on ballot measures to preserve abortion rights. And they could be on their way to winning the governor’s mansions in four of the five states that swung from former President Donald Trump to Biden in 2020.

All in all, it made for one of the most surprising elections in recent U.S. history. As the dust begins to settle, here are five myths about American politics that 2022’s dizzying midterms totally demolished.

Myth: Candidates don’t matter

... If the election had solely been a referendum on the (Democratic) status quo, Biden’s party would have been on track to suffer the cataclysmic midterm losses of Harry Truman in 1946 (54 seats), Bill Clinton in 1994 (53 seats), Barack Obama in 2010 (64 seats) and Trump in 2018 (42 seats).

Instead, Democrats are predicted to lose only about 10 seats, give or take. If California’s outstanding contests break their way, they might even keep control of the House — a previously unthinkable result.

Why? Because at the end of the day, elections are always a choice. And in far too many cases, the GOP alternative seems to have struck a lot of potential Republican voters as unacceptable....

Consider Pennsylvania, where the Republican gubernatorial wannabe Doug Mastriano — a guy who actually gathered outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to “Stop the steal” — lost to Democrat Josh Shapiro by 14 points.

And consider the Democratic sweep in Michigan — a state Trump won in 2016 but where this year’s extremist slate of Republican election deniers lost races for governor, secretary of state, three key House contests and control of both halves of the state Legislature.

... the group that ultimately tipped the scales was independents. In 2010 (Obama’s first midterm), independents sided with Republicans by a 56% to 37% margin; in 2018 (Trump’s one and only midterm), they sided with Democrats by 54% to 42%. Independents almost always flock to the opposition — and as they go, so goes the election.

But this year, indies shattered the historical pattern and broke for the president’s party, 49% to 47%; the Democratic margin among independents was even larger in the Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania Senate races. All signs suggest that they weren’t rewarding Biden Democrats so much as recoiling from Trump Republicans.

It shouldn’t have been close, but apparently more MAGA was worse than more of the same.

Myth: Trump has the 2024 Republican nomination sewn up ...

Too bad, would have been a winner in Nov.

Myth: Swing voters don’t care about abortion and democracy ...

Myth: Latinos are all becoming more Republican ...

Myth: Polling is broken

... Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEight averages in battleground Senate races showed roughly a single percentage point separating Republicans and Democrats in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, with increasingly larger margins in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Washington, Ohio, Colorado and Florida. Nearly all of these pre-election averages were close to the final results.

According to G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for the Economist, “The average absolute error of polling averages in competitive senate elections now looks likely to come in around 2.5% — about half the expected error since 1998. Polls look to have underestimated Democrats marginally by about 0.5-1 point.”

In other words, if you were following the polls — instead of the vibes — you would have known that a so-called “red wave” was far from inevitable.

I was seeing the “red wave” stuff, but turned to RCP on every race that interested me. My pessimism derived from thinking RepuQs were being undercounted as in past polls.

[Vrede too]

Some have called it for Kelly already.
Not called, but projected Cortez Masto to be winner ...

93% expected votes in (Est. remaining 72,738)
Adam Laxalt (R) 48.6%, 462,517
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Incumbent 48.4%, 460,566

Oooh, I am so close to: