2024 Elections

[Vrede too]

Exclusive poll: Nikki Haley surges, nearly ties Ron DeSantis as the alternative to Trump

... Haley's support has risen to 11% of registered voters who plan to vote in GOP primaries or caucuses, up from 4% in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll taken in June and just one percentage point below DeSantis. His 12% standing was a steep fall from his 23% support four months ago.

Trump continues to dominate the field, backed by 58%, up 10 points.

Poor poor Fascist DerSantis, campaign collapse despite spending millions, getting his ass kicked by a multiple-felon and en route to getting his ass kicked by a non-White woman from SC. What's a RW extremist wannabe dictator to do? Lie and stoke heartless xenophobic fears of international terrorism, of course:

... Last week, the Florida governor suggested Haley as president would admit to the United States refugees from war-torn Gaza, and a political action committee allied with DeSantis bought ads making the allegation. Haley said she didn't support the idea and accused DeSantis of distorting her previous remarks....

None of the other Republican candidates scored higher than 3% in the new poll, all of them losing modest ground since June. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy were at 3%. Former vice president Mike Pence, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and talk-show host Larry Elder were at 1%.

Ouch, they really suck.

In the poll, Haley did better among men than women,

I wonder why that is.

and she showed particular strength in the Midwest and the Northeast. She drew more support than DeSantis among college graduates and among political independents. He was stronger among Republicans.

That makes sense to me.

[O Really]

If you judge her by what she's done and not so much what she's said, she may very well be the Repug's best. That's a pretty low bar, I know, but for a Repug, she wasn't awful as governor. And considering she was working for Trump, she wasn't awful at United Nations. She was an early critic of Trump, as well as a recent one. In between she had her head up his ass, but let's attribute that more to the necessity of ambition and not so much to cult membership. I think in the unlikely event she gets in, it will be largely without the hard core Maggots, and in the unlikely even she won the Presidency, would not be as beholden to them as most of the others.

[Vrede too]

If you judge her by what she's done and not so much what she's said, she may very well be the Repug's best. That's a pretty low bar, I know, but for a Repug, she wasn't awful as governor. And considering she was working for Trump, she wasn't awful at United Nations. She was an early critic of Trump, as well as a recent one. In between she had her head up his ass, but let's attribute that more to the necessity of ambition and not so much to cult membership. I think in the unlikely event she gets in, it will be largely without the hard core Maggots, and in the unlikely even she won the Presidency, would not be as beholden to them as most of the others.

Well put and I agree with all of that.

"unlikely event she gets in" - I still maintain that the modern national GQP will never nominate a woman or a non-White for POTUS. Nikki is both.

If Dolt .45 flops due either to the courts, poor health or he was grifting all along, does that mean that Fascist DerSantis is the nominee? Maybe not, his brand has been severely damaged and the race becomes wide open IMO, maybe even to names that have not announced yet. If DerSantis is the nominee I still maintain that he can't win a general because he's been so very fascist. Idk if the GQP base is also aware of this.

We'll see.

[Vrede too]

Article here by a right-wing New Yorker:
"Gavin Newsom Should Scare America"

As the governor of one of the most crime-riddled and expensive states in the country, plagued by homelessness and drug use, it’s hard to imagine that Newsom could ever win a presidential election on merit alone

Newsom faced a recall election in 2021, and despite being one of the least popular and effective governors in the country, he won against ultra-conservative Republican candidate Larry Elder.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/06/gav ... e-america/

Ladies and gentleman, your shadow FCC Chair:

Radio Host Larry Elder Ends Presidential Campaign And Endorses Donald Trump

... Elder is the fourth major candidate to drop out of the race, following Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Texas congressman Will Hurd and businessman Perry Johnson....

Buh-bye

Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips Will Challenge Joe Biden For Democratic Nomination
The moderate suburban Democrat believes that the current president is too old for a second term.

... “I think President Biden has done a spectacular job for our country. But it’s not about the past, this is an election about the future.”

“I will not sit still and I will not be quiet in the face of numbers that are so clearly saying that we’re going to be facing an emergency next November,” he added.



Phillips had been teasing a run for months on the grounds that Biden, the incumbent, is too old for a second term. That stance, which is at odds with virtually every other Democrat in Congress, prompted him earlier this month to leave his post on House Democrats’ leadership team.

“He’s a president of great competence and success, I admire the heck out of President Biden,” Phillips told Politico in February. “And if he were 15-20 years younger it would be a no-brainer to nominate him, but considering his age it’s absurd we’re not promoting competition but trying to extinguish it.”

Phillips has suggested that renominating Biden, now 80, would jeopardize the party’s hold on the presidency....

He's got a point. Idk who I will vote for in a primary that Joltin' Joe is certain to win, assuming I don't grab a GQP ballot, but I think it's a good thing that Joe has credible opposition. Fruitcake RFK Jr and irrelevant Marianne Williamson don't count.

[GoCubsGo]

Probably just setting up for 2028.

[GoCubsGo]

Then there's this.

[Vrede too]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/stat ... 5596188123

Then there's this.

https://twitter.com/AntiToxicPeople/sta ... 1325665476

'

Interesting analysis - It's not that Junior will steal cons. He will steal loons:

Crackpot fight! Trump is worried about RFK Jr. running for president — and he should be scared

Dolt .45 needs the vote.

Donny Jr agrees that his Daddy is a wingnut and that RFK Jr is a wingnut who will compete for wingnut voters:

Donald Trump Jr Bizarrely Claimed This Presidential Candidate Is a ‘Democrat Plant’ That Could Ruin His Father’s Campaign

The nonpartisan wingnut voting bloc is a new development in US politics. Thanks, RFK Jr and Donny Sr, you're a helluva team!

[O Really]

So Pence has predictably bailed. I wonder if anybody has taken him out for a beer or milk shake and in a non-threatening manner ask something like, "Mike, I know you wanted to be President in 2016 and that didn't work, and I know you'd still like to be President, but when you decided to run this time who did you expect would vote for you? Let's consider - Trumpers wouldn't vote for you, they wanted to hang you. Non-trump Repugs wouldn't vote for you because you carry a four-year Trump stench. Unaffiliateds wouldn't vote for you because of the stench and because you're on the wrong side of issues like abortion. Some evangelicals might vote for you except most of them are Trumpers. Black people, Hispanics, gay people - none of them would vote for you. You might get the vote of the anti-gay cake shop type people, but there aren't enough of them to get you very far. But you're the (former) candidate. Who did you expect or hope for?

[Vrede too]

So Pence has predictably bailed. I wonder if anybody has taken him out for a beer or milk shake and in a non-threatening manner ask something like, "Mike, I know you wanted to be President in 2016 and that didn't work, and I know you'd still like to be President, but when you decided to run this time who did you expect would vote for you? Let's consider - Trumpers wouldn't vote for you, they wanted to hang you. Non-trump Repugs wouldn't vote for you because you carry a four-year Trump stench. Unaffiliateds wouldn't vote for you because of the stench and because you're on the wrong side of issues like abortion. Some evangelicals might vote for you except most of them are Trumpers. Black people, Hispanics, gay people - none of them would vote for you. You might get the vote of the anti-gay cake shop type people, but there aren't enough of them to get you very far. But you're the (former) candidate. Who did you expect or hope for?

WAGs:
Ex-VP Q-tip thought that the criminal and civil trials would eventually knock P01135809 out of the race - still possible.
He thought that Dolt .45 was never a serious candidate, anyhow. It's all about the grift - still plausible.
He thought that Fascist DerSantis would flop - true.
He hoped that he would be the last adult standing. Your dismantling of this delusion has now been proved.
He wanted to boost sales of his book, So Help Me God (2022), for personal enrichment - mission accomplished?

Whatever, this is potentially an interesting consequence of his withdrawal:

Likelihood of Pence testifying against Trump are ‘high to almost a certainty’ after dropping 2024 bid

SingMikeSing!

[O Really]

Well, people smarter than Pence have made monumental mistakes in estimating potential voters. Goldwater, for example, who believed there was there this great number of conservative people who didn't vote. Opps. McGovern, who believed public dislike of the war would bring hordes of new and dissatisfied voters. Opps. But both of those were reasonable, even if wrong. Goldwater's fantasy was based largely on an analysis of letters to newspapers, which ran 2-1 in favor of "conservative" thought. But Pence was soundly rejected in 2016, was not a popular VP and VP's hardly ever get elected to Prez anyway. And then there's the Jan 6 debacle. He had no reasonable base of support. None. Yet he ran. Sorta.

Response to Pence's comment of speaking with God, SNL said "God said "Dude, you're embarrassing us both."

[GoCubsGo]

As predicted.

[Vrede too]

As predicted.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/stat ... 2442239443

True.

Love this wildcard that no one predicted, though:

RFK Jr. Pulling More Money From GOP Donors than Dem Donors
Donor data reveals RFK Jr. is activating disgruntled GOP donors, and they aren't giving to Trump

... The data further underscores what Democratic strategists have said about RFJ Jr.'s campaign posing a larger threat to split votes away from Donald Trump than from President Biden.

The Dolt .45 team and even Donny Jr have said the same thing.

... He is now much more popular with Republicans than Democrats, with a near 50% approval rating among Republican voters, and a 2-1 disapproval rating among Democrats.

GoRFK JrGo.

[Vrede too]

GoRFK JrGo.

Otoh,


No Labels Isn't What It Claims to Be | Robert Reich

[Vrede too]

GOP's third debate on Nov. 8 in Miami qualifiers:

In:
Ron DeSantis
Vivek Ramaswamy
Nikki Haley
Chris Christie - good for him

Maybe:
Tim Scott - no Blacks allowed?

Shunning:
ex-PINO - COWARD!

Probably not:
Doug Burgum
Asa Hutchinson

[Vrede too]

Exactly one year to go. It'll be a wild ride. We could be choosing fascism or not, and we could see repeat insurrection efforts. Fingers crossed for electorate wisdom and anti-terrorism success.

[GoCubsGo]

Good effing lord.

[Vrede too]

Biden jokes after someone falls at his speech: ‘I want the press to know that wasn’t me’

... In the middle of Biden’s speech, a crashing sound could be heard.

The president turned his head and asked, “Are you OK?”

Instinctually compassionate Joe.

“I want the press to know that wasn’t me,” he cracked to laughs from the audience....

Instantly self-deprecating Joe. Who says that his mind ain't sharp?

Unscientific The Hill poll:

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the suggestion that President Biden should stand aside for someone else to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024?
Somewhat agree 18%, including me
Strongly agree 45%
Somewhat disagree 8%
Strongly disagree 21%
Other / No opinion 7%

63% agree , including non-Dems though. I said "Somewhat" rather than "Strongly" because there's a risk that the Dems will do worse.

[O Really]

Good effing lord.

Good lord indeed.
Is it possible that these "third party" or "fourth party" or "independent' whatever people just don't understand how the US electoral system works as enshrined in (bad) law. It is not a parliamentary system. There are no coalitions. A candidate has to win 270 of the electoral votes. if a loose wheel keeps that from happening, the House of Representatives will pick the president. Each state delegation gets one vote, regardless of the number of congressional districts it has. 26 votes, representing a majority of the states, are required to win. Anybody notice how many Congressionally red states there are out there?

Or they can just siphon votes from the major party candidates. If the stated objective of the loose wheels is to bring "moderation" or "common sense" or "cooperation among the parties" or whatever, which major party is more likely to lose voters? The party of hard-core loons? Nope.

I don't personally believe (maybe wishful thinking) that Trump is going to make it to election, probably because of convictions. But as of today, the only thing a potential candidate or voter needs to consider is "do I want to help Trump get elected again?" Well, do ya, Punk? Because that's what they're doing.

[GoCubsGo]

But the third partiers have things to saaaayyyyyyy......

[O Really]

Whiner Party?