Ukraine

[Wneglia]

If this guy is to be believed, Putin has his sights set on more than just the peninsula. He may well want the entire country. The strategy outlined above reads like it came out of Clancy's last novel, "Command Authority".

[billy.pilgrim]

as usual there is no hypocrisy by the right. even randi stands tall with his unwavering ideals


"It is our role as a global leader to be the strongest nation in opposing Russia's latest aggression.
Putin must be punished for violating the Budapest Memorandum, and Russia must learn that the U.S. will isolate it if it insists on acting like a rogue nation.
This does not and should not require military action. No one in the U.S. is calling for this. But it will require other actions and leadership, both of which President Obama unfortunately lacks."

but his flop flipped from

In April 2009, Paul, arguing for a restrained foreign policy (and smaller military establishment), Paul immediately turned to the subject of Russia's invasion of Georgia the previous year

"For example, we have to ask ourselves, "Who needs to be part of NATO? What does NATO need to be at this point?" One of the big things [for] the neocons—the people in the Republican Party sort of on the other side from where I come from—is they want Georgia to be part of NATO. Well, Georgia sits right on the border of Russia. Do you think that might be provocative to put them in NATO? NATO's treaty actually says that if they're attacked, we will defend them. So, if the treaty means something, that means all of a sudden we're at war with Russia. If Georgia would had become, Bush wanted Georgia to become part of NATO, had they been part of NATO, we'd be at war with Russia right now. That's kinda a scary thing. We have to decide whether putting missiles in Poland is gonna provoke the Russians. Maybe not to war, but whether it's worth provoking them, or whether we have the money to do it."

(remember when faux and the right loved lil bush’s non response to putin invading another nation)

[Wneglia]

Another reason not to trust the Rooskies

[rstrong]

My take on this: The annexation of Crimea - and likely annexation of more of the eastern Ukraine - and the inability of the West to do anything about it - has probably killed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and forced a lot of countries to go nuclear.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited the third-largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world. In 1992 it agreed to give up all nuclear weapons to Russia for disposal and to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state.

Obviously the Ukraine would not give up its nuclear weapons without some security guarantee from those asking them to give up the nukes. Not with Russia next door, which had occupied them for decades and had committed genocide against them.

The US, Britain and Russia jointly made that guarantee.

Now, that promise doesn't agree to protect the Ukraine from non-nuclear attacks. But it does promise that the US, Britain and Russia would "respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."

(It also agrees to protect the Ukraine against the threat of aggression with nukes. And the big reason that Russia can get away with invading the Ukraine where the US or UN has stepped in after other invasions, is obviously that Russia has nukes.)

So the US and Russia and Britain jointly presented a promise to Ukraine to get them to lower their defenses. And now one of them has violated that promise. Whether or not that makes for a legal obligation on the part of the others to set things right, it certainly makes for an ethical one.

But it doesn't stop there:

All of the other non-nuclear-weapon states under the Non-Proliferation Treaty - those who have agree not to build nukes or to give up their nuclear weapons capability - are being taught a harsh lesson: Nukes are what counts. No-one will protect you when a nuclear power invades you. Not even those who jointly promised and signed Security Assurances with the invader.

It's already hard enough for the US to convince other countries that "YOU shouldn't have nukes to protect yourself, but WE should." A big part of that convincing is "WE will protect you from threats that being a nuclear power would otherwise have prevented." And "WE act as a balance against the other nuclear power (namely Russia) attacking you."

This is where we find out whether the assurances under the Non-Proliferation Treaty are worth anything, or whether everyone should start nuclear programs.

But it doesn't stop there:

The US has mutual defence agreements with other countries. For example the one that led the US to liberate Kuwait in Gulf War I. They could have simply bought more oil from Saudi Arabia. And frankly they could have bought Kuwaiti oil from Iraq. But Saudi Arabia and the rest would no longer trust them for protection. All those oil profits would be dumped into a massive middle-east arms race. With nuclear weapons.

The reason US forces are in Japan and Korea has been to persuade them that the US is serious about its nuclear guarantees to them. Otherwise Japan - with nuclear powers North Korea, the Soviet Union and China next door - would have had little choice but to rebuild its military. With nuclear weapons.

Only the US presence prevents South Korea from going nuclear to protect itself against North Korea. If South Korea did go nuclear, again, Japan would have little choice but to follow. For US national security, preventing a five-way nuclear arms race makes a few bases look like a good deal.

It was the same story in Europe. Without the American presence - and its ability to use nuclear weapons if necessary to stop the Soviets from invading, West Germany would have acquired its own nuclear weapons. Later it was the continued US presence in Germany that convinced Gorbachov he could allow the fall of the Berlin Wall and the uniting of the two Germanys. The US acted as a guarantor for the Russians against the Germans doing something silly. And they probably still do, as far as Russia is concerned.

We now see a hard limit on those guarantees. No doubt the Ukraine, and Germany next door, and other countries around Russia and China, are strongly considering secret nuclear weapons programs. They have little choice now. For some of them the technical hurdles will be insignificant.

[rstrong]

Some poor soul did the almost masochistic job of going back and seeing what some
of the professional wingnuts had to say when Russia invaded Georgia back in 2008,
when Bush II was president. Pretty close to crickets. Now that Obama is president
it's completely different.

You imply that since Republicans were elected to the White House during the Georgia invasion, they share the same responsibility for Georgia that Obama shares for Ukraine. A thorough examination of the voting record shows the flaw in this position.

[neoplacebo]

Ukraine Facts with JTA:

- Every Ukrainian I've worked with was a terrible worker.

Word is that those women welders and fabricators at Vladivostok kick ass. Maybe the Beatles were on to something.

Unsure what you meant by that, :-0?> but Vladivostok ain't nowhere near Ukraine....it's closer to Sarah Palin.

"Those Ukraine girls really knock me out....." Back in the USSR"

Uh-huh! Or anywhere else!

Sorry; my Russian geography isn't what you'd call "good." I was thinking of the city where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based.....Sevastopol I think. I also think the presence of that large naval installation is the biggest factor in why Russia has done this.

[Wneglia]

Former Ukraine Minister Says rebuild nuke program.

[rstrong]

WELCOME BACK!

Thanks!

WELCOME BACK!
The US has long violated Article VI of the NPT by ignoring the goal of disarmament by the nuclear-weapon States. It's also violated the spirit of the NPT with our support for India, Israel, and Pakistan. We had a chance with the end of the Cold War but the NPT regime may have been doomed to failure with our choice to let the opportunity slip through our fingers.

While VERY few would expect the US to unilaterally disarm, the lack of talks or even meaningless gestures in that direction by the world's nuclear powers are certainly nails in the coffin of the NPT. What's happened to Ukraine since disarming is probably just the final nail.

[JTA]

Cold War II: Soviet Reunion

[Bungalow Bill]

Some poor soul did the almost masochistic job of going back and seeing what some
of the professional wingnuts had to say when Russia invaded Georgia back in 2008,
when Bush II was president. Pretty close to crickets. Now that Obama is president
it's completely different.

You imply that since Republicans were elected to the White House during the Georgia invasion, they share the same responsibility for Georgia that Obama shares for Ukraine. A thorough examination of the voting record shows the flaw in this position.

I should have made it clearer that I was talking about some of the right-wing
columnists. Someone went back to see what they wrote when Russia invaded
Georgia in 2008, and there was very little criticism of Bush. Now that Obama is
president these same columnists have a very different view.

This must have been a no-brainer for Putin. He knew that there would be no
aggressive military response from the U.S. and Europe. And that part of the
Ukraine has been back and forth during different time periods. That doesn't
make Russia's actions correct, but it's a different situation from the U.S. invading
Iraq or Afghanistan.

Russia sanctioning U.S. Senators reminds of the time Iran declared the C.I.A. a
terrorist organization.

[rstrong]

Cold War II: Soviet Reunion

Cold War II: Nuclear Boogaloo

[billy.pilgrim]

is there some reason that Iran shouldn't have declared the C.I.A. a terrorist organization. Afterall; it was our CIA that overthrew their democraticly elected government and installed a brutal dictator

[Bungalow Bill]

I'm indifferent to the Ruskies sanctioning Senators, but the Iranians
declaring the C.I.A. a terrorist organizations was kind of neat. I
think it had more to do with the actions of the C.I.A. at the
time, though the overthrow of Mossadegh might have been part of
it. The Brits were also significantly involved in that coup which brought
in the Shah. There is also speculation that the Company is helping
some ethnic minorities in Iran stir things up a bit. Funny how it all
came back to bite the U.S. twenty-five years later. How would have
thought?

[bannination]

Maybe we'll just nuke each other and get it over with. I think the great experiment has failed.

[Bungalow Bill]

I doubt Putin is very concerned over the economic aspect of taking Crimea.
He's overjoyed that it might be part of Mother Russia again. Just hope he
keeps his shirt on.

[rstrong]

And then there's the Crimean cannibal who loves Tatar tots....

[JTA]

What Romney is saying to the rest of the US on hearing news of Russia actin' a fool:

[JTA]

That was racist.

NTTAWWT.

As long as you start off by saying "I'm not racist, but...", or "I have <pick a race> friends, but..."

You can say anything that would normally be deemed racist and not be considered racist.

[JTA]

So, if someone does not start off by saying "I'm not racist, but...", or "I have <pick a race> friends, but...", that must mean . . .

"I'm not racist, but I hate all white people because they smell like hot dog water when it rains."

"I'm not racist, but I hate all gays because they're so fabulous."

None of those statements are racist.

[rstrong]

A high-class Lakota cook is a Sioux chef!

And then there's the Crimean cannibal who loves Tatar tots....